The PGA Tour continues its successful Florida Swing this week as players arrive at Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
This is the fourth signature event of the PGA Tour season and brings $20 million in prize money and additional FedEx Cup points.
Certainly, this is one of those tournaments where you don’t need an incentive to draw one of the best fields of the season.
Many of the world’s top players, including Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy, will be competing for more wins.
So let’s go to the Arnold Palmer Invitational oddspredict and select.
Arnold Palmer Invitation Odds
The fields at Ernie’s Place are stacked as much as possible. Here are the current odds from DraftKings:
- Scotty Scheffler +650
- Rory McIlroy +850
- Viktor Hovland +1600
- Xander Schauffele +1800
- Patrick Cantlay +1800
- Ludwig Aberg +2000
- Colin Morikawa +2200
- Tommy Fleetwood +2500
- Jordan Spieth +2500
- Sam Burns +2800
- Max Homa +2800
- Cameron Young +2800
- Justin Thomas +2800
- Matt Fitzpatrick +3000
As you can see, this is a guy from the PGA Tour. That makes choosing a winner a difficult task. However, there are some keys to note.
Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions
Bay Hill Club & Lodge is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour each year. Since the green surrounds were changed five years ago, this course has ranked in the top five most difficult courses in terms of scoring every season.
But what does that mean?
Well, let’s break it down.
Rory McIlroy is par for the course in providing value, but not in winning.
The course is just over 7,400 yards. This is quite a course and obviously gives players a bit of an advantage off the tee.
However, the rough next to the fairway is up to 3 inches thick in places. Therefore, it is important not only to hit the ball far, but also to hit it accurately.
We all know McIlroy is a bomber off the tee. But so far this year, he’s also been deadly accurate, ranking 14th on tour with over 68% of fairway hits.
I don’t think his short game is strong enough to carry him to victory. After all, Bay Hill is notorious for its wild green complex, and Lowry ranks him 132nd in putts per round this year.
But he should be in good enough position off the tee to be in contention into the weekend.
That’s why I love McIlroy and his -110 odds for a top-10 finish. You also get that amount minus the juice on tracks where he has historically performed very well.
Cameron Young ready for big breakthrough
Another very interesting bet is that Cameron Young will finish in the top five. Players who seem to be in great shape at the moment will receive +500.
In his past three tournaments, Young has finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic, T16 at the Genesis Invitational and T8 at the Phoenix Open.
This is the third time this course has taken place. most predictive According to the New York Times, it is based on past performances on tour.
Well, Young has finished inside the top 13 in each of his last two years here.
This course tests every aspect of the game. If there is a glaring weakness, Bay Hill will find it. Still, Young has averaged or better performance in nearly every statistical category this year.
For a 5-1 chance of him finishing in the top five here, I like that bet.
Arnold Palmer Invitation Long Shot
If you’re looking for really long odds, look no further than Min Woo Lee.
He’s clearly an up-and-coming star on tour, with +4000 odds to win the tournament
That’s a solid price to pay for a player of Lee’s caliber considering all the long shots he won this year.
The question is not if he will break out, but when.
Lee finished 2023 on a high with three top-10 finishes in his last five starts. He then finished T2 at Cognizant last week.
Perhaps now is his time to shine and bring attention to Team USA’s Presidents Cup team.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Player
Speaking of breakout stars, I’m going to nominate Ludvig Aberg to win at Ernie’s Place.
Aberg is long and accurate off the tee. His short game has improved significantly in a short amount of time, and the 24-year-old has shown a tendency to make big plays in key moments.
Just ask Team USA’s Ryder Cup team who he flatly shamed.
He finished the 2023 season on a high note, finishing the year with three top-five finishes and five consecutive top-15 finishes. This includes a win at the RSM Classic, another course in the southeastern United States that uses Bermuda grass.
He continued that momentum this year and almost won at Pebble Beach.
Aberg is currently moving at +2000. You want to tell me he has a 20-to-1 chance of continuing his rise in a place where this kid is known for making history. Please register.
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Kendall Capps is the senior editor of SB Nation’s Playing Through.For more golf coverage, follow us @_PlayingThrough on all major social media platforms.
