The 2023-24 Premier League season is finally in its final stages, and there are still races left.
With nine games left, only three points separate leaders Liverpool (67 points, +40 goal difference), Arsenal (65 points, GD+46) and Manchester City (64 points, +35 goal difference). .
The relegation battle is similarly chaotic, with five teams (Brentford, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Burnley) still in the scraps for survival. At the moment, only Sheffield United appear to be certain to be eliminated.
And don’t expect much change by the end of the week.
You never know what will happen in 90 minutes of football, but all three title contenders are heavy favorites going into the midweek games, and two of them have the potential to be relegated.
Here’s one of those games: Arsenal vs. Luton Town (2:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, USA Network/NBC.com).
Arsenal vs Luton Town odds
| arsenal | luton town | draw | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1000 | +2200 | +1050 | O3.5 (-165) U3.5 (+120) |
Arsenal vs Luton Town analysis
Luton Town’s approach to their first season in the Premier League deserves praise.
The Hatters have a limited budget compared to the big clubs in England’s top league, but they decided to take on the challenge without worrying about that.
When small-market teams advance, they almost always try to claw their way to survival with solid defense and putting as many players behind the ball as possible. But not Luton Town.
Rather than choosing to sit deep and frustrate their opponents, Luton Town have engaged their team in frenetic contests. They’re a lot of fun, but the Hatters just don’t have the talent, especially defensively, to keep up with the top clubs in the Premier League.
As entertaining as it is, Luton’s dangerous antics have put enormous pressure on their stodgy backline all season.
The Hatters have conceded the second-most goals in the Premier League (62) in 30 games, but there’s nothing fickle about it.
Luton are bottom of the Premier League for expected goals conceded, bottom of goals conceded in big chances and 19th for shots per 90 minutes.
No wonder the Hatters have a huge +2200 lead over Arsenal on Wednesday. And while this number is appealing for big gamers, it may not be long enough.
Last season, Brentford upset Manchester City who were +2200 behind just before the World Cup was suspended. Brentford was much more advanced than modern Luton Town.
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Arsenal vs Luton Town picks
Rather than expecting Luton to pull off a shocker, bettors could see value in Arsenal running up the score.
Goal difference could very well affect the title race, so there’s every reason for Arsenal to give the Hatters an unfair number in this position.
