At a monastery in the foothills of the snow-capped mountains of northern India, Buddhist monks entrusted with protecting the Dalai Lama and predicting the future of their people are worried.
As the Dalai Lama celebrated his 89th birthday on Saturday and China insists on choosing his successor as Tibet’s supreme spiritual leader, Tibet’s top oracle medium is pondering what happens next.
Dalai Lama says it was “innocent and playful” to ask boy to “suck my tongue”
“His Holiness is the 14th Dalai Lama and there will be the 15th, 16th, 17th,” said the medium, known as Nechung. “In countries, leadership changes and that’s the end of the story. But in Tibet it’s different.”
Tibetan Buddhists believe that learned monks are reincarnated as newborn babies after death. The Dalai Lama, currently recovering from a medical procedure in the United States, has said he will clarify questions about his succession, including whether and where he will be reincarnated, just before his 90th birthday. As part of the reincarnation identification process, mediums will enter a trance state and consult divine oracles.
The current Dalai Lama is a charismatic international advocate of Buddhism who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 for his work fighting for the cause of Tibetans in exile. He believes in what he calls the “middle way” of peacefully pursuing true autonomy and religious freedom within China, but Beijing sees him as a dangerous separatist.
The Dalai Lama turned 89 on Saturday. (AFP via Getty Images/File)
Whoever succeeds him will be inexperienced and unknown on the international stage, raising concerns that the movement, long a source of bipartisan support for Tibet’s government-in-exile, may lose steam or become more militant amid rising tensions between Beijing and Washington.
The CTA and its Western partners, as well as India, which has hosted the Dalai Lama in the Himalayan foothills for more than six decades, are preparing for a future without his influential presence.
President Joe Biden is expected to sign a bill soon that requires the State Department to counter Chinese “disinformation” that Tibet, which was annexed by the People’s Republic of China in 1951, has been part of China since ancient times.
“China wants Tibet recognised as having been a part of China throughout history, and this bill suggests it will be relatively easy for Tibet advocates to deny such a sweeping claim to Western governments,” said Robert Burnett, a Tibet expert at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.
US lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), visited the Dalai Lama last month to celebrate Congress’ passage of the bill, which CTA head Penpa Tsering called a “breakthrough.”
The bill is part of a strategic shift away from emphasizing China’s human rights abuses, such as forced assimilation, Sik Yong, a political leader, told Reuters. Since 2021, the CTA has lobbied 24 countries, including the United States, to publicly undermine Beijing’s claim that Tibet has always been part of China, he said.
With U.S. pressure behind the strategy, the defectors hope to bring China to the negotiating table, he said. “If all countries keep saying Tibet is part of the People’s Republic of China, then what is the reason for China to come and talk to us?”
In response to questions from Reuters, China’s Foreign Ministry said it was ready to hold talks with the Dalai Lama about his “personal future” if he “truly abandons the position of dividing the motherland” and recognizes Tibet as an inalienable part of China.
Tibetans take part in a protest to mark the 65th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising against Chinese rule in the northern Indian hill city of Dharamsala on March 10, 2024. (Reuters/Adnan Abidi/File)
Beijing, which has not held an official meeting with a representative of the Dalai Lama since 2010, has also urged Biden not to sign the bill.
The Dalai Lama’s office, who has apologized in recent years for remarks about women and children, referred interview requests to Sik Yong.
Succession issue
Many historians say Tibet was assimilated into the Mongol Empire during the Yuan dynasty in the 13th and 14th centuries, which also controlled much of present-day China. Beijing claims sovereignty over Tibet, but scholars believe relations changed significantly over the centuries, and that the remote country remained autonomous for most of the time.
The People’s Liberation Army marched into Tibet in 1950 and proclaimed “peaceful liberation.” After a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959, the young Dalai Lama fled to India.
Atheist China and the Dalai Lama separately recognized the two boys as the Panchen Lamas, the second-highest ranking leader in Tibetan Buddhism, in 1995. The Dalai Lama’s designation was confiscated by Chinese authorities and has not been seen since.
While many Buddhists consider Beijing’s choice illegitimate, most expect a similar selection to be made for the next Dalai Lama, given the Chinese government’s stance that the Dalai Lama must be reincarnated and that a successor must be recognized.
In this photo shared by the Dalai Lama’s office, U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, Republican of Texas (left), is greeted by Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama at the Tibetan leader’s official residence in Dharamsala, India, on June 19, 2024. (Tenzin Choejor/Office of the Dalai Lama via The Associated Press)
“The Chinese authorities have attempted to interfere in the issue of the Dalai Lama’s succession, and we will not tolerate that,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said during a visit to Dharamsala last month.
India, which clashed with Chinese troops near the Tibetan plateau in 2022, has not been very vocal about its position on the succession.
“The United States doesn’t have to worry about border incursions like India does,” said Donald Camp, a former senior US National Security Council official for South Asia.
But observers of Indian diplomacy say India, home to tens of thousands of Tibetans and a growing voice on the global stage, will be drawn into the conflict. Hardline commentators have already called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to meet with the Dalai Lama as a way to pressure China.
The Indian Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the succession issue, but former ambassador to China Ashok Kanta said India was “not happy with China trying to control the process”.
“We have privately told China that negotiating with the Dalai Lama and his representatives is their best option,” Kanta said. “We don’t know what will happen after the death of the 14th Dalai Lama.”
The Dalai Lama commands respect among Tibetan exiles, which has helped to stave off discontent and formal moves for independence, but it is unclear whether that balance will be maintained after his death.
Sonam Tsering, secretary-general of the Tibetan Youth Congress, said his organisation respects the middle way but, like many other young Tibetans, wants complete independence.
For now, he said, Tibetans are focused on helping fulfil the Dalai Lama’s wish to return to his homeland before he dies.
But if their wishes were not granted, “the outpouring of emotion and the emotional difficulties they would be going through is very difficult to contemplate,” he said.
Shikwon said the CTA’s new emphasis on challenging China’s claims has united pro-independence Tibetans and those seeking a middle way, as Tibet’s historical status is a common point of agreement.
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On Saturday, tens of thousands of Buddhists and supporters from around the world are expected to gather to celebrate and pray for the long life of their leader, who remains their strongest hope for an eventual return to Tibet.
But time is beginning to run out for the Dalai Lama and his followers.
