We are at the top of the Premier League for the 2023-24 season and every race is still up for a challenge.
Only four points separate leaders Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal, but three teams (Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United) are within five points of chasing a top-four spot.
Luton Town (20 points) are looking to avoid relegation as they chase Everton (20 points), Nottingham Forest (24 points), Crystal Palace (25 points) and Brentford (25 points). The battle over the issue remains fluid.
Adding further drama to the fight for survival is the fact that Everton are currently appealing a 10-point deduction for breaching Financial Fair Play rules.
If the Toffees win in court, they will almost certainly avoid relegation.
All this said, it should be a great run of fixtures in England’s top division, and this weekend sets up great for bettors looking to back some big prices.
Aston Villa at Nottingham Forest
(Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Based on pre-season predictions and odds, no team has exceeded expectations as much as Aston Villa.
Coach Unai Emery has completely transformed the Villains into a high-event team that performs at its best in back-and-forth contests.
The change in identity has clearly worked for Villa, but their form has been on the decline recently thanks to a number of injuries to their backline.
Despite a series of injuries and a decline in the team’s form, Villa have a record of three wins, one loss, and three draws in their last seven games, with a goal difference of +3.
This is exactly the same record that Nottingham Forest have recorded in their first seven games under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo (albeit with a +2 goal difference).
Forest may not have the talent and depth to keep pace with Villa for the entire season, but given the Villans’ injury situation, that doesn’t really separate the two clubs in the short term.
Tricky Trees, led by the creative team of Taiwo Awoniyi, Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White, have the ability to pose serious questions about this battered Villa defense on Saturday.
Recommended: Nottingham Forest (+500, Caesars)
Sheffield United vs Wolverhampton
(Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET)
No team since Aston Villa has defied pre-season expectations like Wolverhampton.
A club thought to be in crisis before the season, Wolves have steadily climbed the table in recent months, picking up impressive wins against Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City in the process. Ta.
Wolves manager Gary O’Neill deserves a huge amount of credit for their performances this season and these odds certainly reflect what they value.
Sheffield United have been poor all year and may go down as the first team in Premier League history to concede 100 goals in a season, but it’s really hard to avoid Wolves being favorites at -215.
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As Wolverhampton have played this season, this team is still a team that is better than the sum of its parts, and there isn’t a huge talent gap between these two teams that Wolves could sign. The margin needed to justify this price.
Don’t get me wrong, Wolverhampton are a much better team than Sheffield United, but this price reflects a team at the top end of their market valuations and a team at the bottom end.
If you squint, you can see that Sheffield United have shown some improvement since Chris Wilder returned as manager, but their expected goal difference of -3.3 over their last seven games is more like -12 goal difference. Not bad.
There should be some positive setback for the Blades, who have already beaten Wolves this season.
It’s ugly, but it’s the right bet.
Recommended: Sheffield United (+650, BetRivers)
