The NFC South will once again be the worst division in the NFL, with the Buccaneers, Panthers and Saints all projected to win eight games or less in 2024.
Both the Saints and Buccaneers boasted 9-8 records, an exaggeration considering most of their wins came against teams with a winning percentage of under .500.
Can the Panthers and Kirk Cousins-led Falcons make the division more interesting in 2024, or will we once again see a two-team battle for first place?
Check out our NFC South preview and best bets, including current win numbers and odds from DraftKings.
Buccaneers: 7.5 wins (-150/+125)
Baker Mayfield’s return was the most exciting storyline for the Buccaneers in 2023, as they had to find a quarterback solution in a hurry following Tom Brady’s retirement.
Mayfield threw for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career, and his strength and fearlessness led the Buccaneers to a winning record and a berth in the postseason.
Tampa Bay paid Mayfield a big signing bonus after a promising season that could hold the team back in the future. Luckily, star wide receiver Mike Evans got a more reasonable contract. He’s a bit older now at 32, but his production hasn’t slowed down.
Re-signing Antoine Winfield Jr. could be the difference between being a playoff contender again or remaining irrelevant in the NFL’s worst division, and the Buccaneers did what was necessary.
Falcons: 9.5 wins (-135/+115)
Atlanta signed Cousins to improve last season’s awful quarterback play and added Rondale Moore and Darnell Mooney to be the primary weapons on offense and to join Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London as bolsters for Cousins.
Then, despite having just signed Cousins to a huge contract, the Falcons drafted Michael Pennis Jr. with the eighth overall pick.
Despite this puzzling decision, the Falcons have the most talented offense in the NFC South and shouldn’t have any trouble scoring, but how successful the team will be will depend on the defense stepping up even further.
Panthers: 5.5 wins (-115/-105)
The Panthers signed offensive linemen Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis in the offseason and acquired wide receiver Deontay Johnson in a trade to bolster quarterback Bryce Young. They clearly aren’t going to give up on Young, nor should they. A rookie quarterback on a bad team is already a pretty big underdog.
Unfortunately, the Panthers paid a big salary in free agency and didn’t retain pass rusher Brian Barnes, which could complicate things for Carolina, who boasted a somewhat respectable defense last season.
Saints: 7.5 wins (-120/+100)
The Saints narrowly missed the playoffs last season, but judging by their offseason moves, they must be confident they’re in it for 2024. After all, their financial situation points to an “all in” play.
The Saints signed defensive end Chase Young and linebacker Willie Gay to join a unit that includes Tyrann Mathieu, Cameron Jordan and Marshon Lattimore that is solid on paper and could help a disappointing offense.
But age and health are major concerns, and their offseason and overall direction means very little considering the Saints are nowhere near contending for a championship.
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Best bets for NFC South
The Falcons could have further bolstered their depth by passing on Penix and drafting a defenseman who can get on the field right away, but they’re still the most talented team in an otherwise awful division.
The easiest schedule in the NFL this season should ease their path to a 10-win season in a division that has failed to improve.
recommendation: The Falcons are expected to win by 9.5 or more (-135, DraftKings).
