Saturday will feature some of the most physical and intense basketball all season as the No. 11 Auburn Tigers and No. 4 Houston Cougars meet in what could be the final game.
Which candidate will emerge victorious from this match?
Keep reading for Auburn Tigers vs. Houston Cougars predictions, previews, and betting picks.
Auburn vs Houston odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| auburn | +2.5 (-104) | +125 | 146.5 or higher (-110) |
| houston | -2.5 (-118) | -150 | Less than 146.5 (-110) |
Auburn vs. Houston predictions
(9:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
The spread in this necessarily defense-centric matchup has held steady at 2.5 points in favor of the Houston Cougars.
Houston (No. 1 in adjEM) and Auburn (No. 2 in adjEM) are the top two teams in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin metric despite being No. 4 and 11, respectively, in the AP Poll.
Both teams have plenty of offensive talent, but it's the defense that stands out.
For example, under head coach Kelvin Sampson, team defense and offensive rebounding are the cornerstones of the Cougars' program.
In fact, Houston has finished in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) in each of the last four seasons.
Additionally, during that span, the Cougars never finished lower than sixth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.
One area where Houston has shown tremendous growth over the past two seasons is ball protection, ranking in the top 15 nationally in turnovers per game.
Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson reacts during the first half against Jackson State during an NCAA college basketball game on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024, in Houston. AP
It's incredibly difficult to beat a team that refuses to beat you.
With returning veterans like L.J. Cryer, Terrence Arsonow, Jawan Roberts, Milik Wilson, Joseph Tagler, Ramon Walker Jr., and Emmanuel Sharpe, one thing is for sure: the Cougars will continue this season. It means not losing to ourselves.
The Auburn Tigers also brought back a lot of talent, including perhaps the nation's best two-way frontcourt player, Joni Bloom.
Bloom averaged 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.1 “stocks” (steals and blocks) per game while shooting an impressive 54.8 percent from the field. He also capped the rim on the other side of the floor, helping Auburn hold opponents to the nation's lowest 2-point percentage (42.9%).
And, to no one's surprise, Auburn also defeated its first opponent (Vermont), holding the Catamounts to 25.9 percent from the field and 21.7 percent from 3-point land.
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Auburn vs. Houston Picks
The Cougars just finished the season with a 10-5-2 ATS record at home.
This game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston, which is not on their home floor but closely resembles their home environment.
Last season, the Cougars held opponents to 40.1 percent field goal percentage in front of their home fans, the lowest rate of any team in the country.
It also had the highest average score difference.
The two teams could potentially meet in the Final Four or National Championship later in the season.
For now, enjoy the bloodbath and Houston's narrow victory thanks to excellent ball protection and offensive rebounding.
Best bet: Houston -2.5 (-118, FanDuel)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Andrew Norton has handicapped the NBA, WNBA, NFL, College Basketball, Football, UFC, and Golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he delivered an outstanding ROI of 14.1%, cashed in 60% of his NBA spread picks, and led Tallysight in SportsIQ metrics.
