In early trading in Europe on Thursday, the AUD/JPY exchange rate was down at about 112.62. The Japanese yen, or JPY, gained slightly against the Australian dollar (AUD), with rising concerns in the Middle East following comments from US President Donald Trump, who stated that the temporary agreement to end the war with Iran was “over.”
Traders are also cautious of potential intervention from Japanese authorities. Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset overlays at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, noted, “The current yen weakness seems excessive and doesn’t reflect the strong fundamentals of Japan’s economy. This misalignment could lead to coordinated intervention by major central banks.”
Technical analysis:
Looking at the daily chart, the AUD/JPY is positioned above the 100-day moving average and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a generally positive outlook after a recent dip. The price is also above the lower Bollinger Band, with the upper band suggesting a potential upward target as it shifts higher. The Relative Strength Index (14) sitting around 50 shows momentum is neutral, indicating more of a consolidation phase rather than depletion.
On the downside, initial support is identified at the 100-day moving average at 112.55, followed by the Bollinger midline around 112.42 and the lower band at 111.15, with buyers likely to hold the broader upward trend. Conversely, the first price resistance appears at 113.55 from June 16, while the next resistance level is at the Bollinger Bands’ upper limit of 113.70, reaching toward the May 13 high of 114.74.
