- The Australian dollar has seen a drop due to uncertainties, following a Bloomberg report suggesting that China’s mineral resources group has stopped purchasing from BHP.
- Australia’s AIG Industry Index moved up from 7.6 points to -13.2 in September.
- Recent employment data from the US has raised speculation about possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened, with the AUD/USD trading around 0.6600 during Asian trading hours. This decline follows a report from Bloomberg stating that the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), a state-owned entity for iron ore, has delayed new orders from BHP. This news comes as China prepares for its holiday from October 1-8.
However, a financial review from Australia referenced the product pricing company Mysteel, which disputed the report, asserting it has confirmed that the claims are untrue.
In terms of financial activity, Australia’s AIG Industry Index climbed to -13.2 in September, albeit still indicating contraction, while the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased from 53.0 in August to 51.4, showing a slow but ongoing expansion in the sector.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to keep its official cash rate at 3.6% after a monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. RBA Governor Michele Brock noted in a press conference that the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) components were somewhat higher than anticipated, implying inflation remains a concern. She mentioned that there will be additional data released in November but didn’t provide particularly optimistic guidance.
The Australian dollar sees a decline amid government shutdown concerns
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, is currently around 97.80. Traders seem to be waiting for updates on US ADP employment and ISM manufacturing PMI data for September, both of which could be influenced by government shutdowns.
- The Greenback is experiencing some restraint after softer US employment data has heightened expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a nearly 97% chance of a Fed reduction in October, with a 76% probability for December.
- Latest job openings point to a cooling labor market, even as vacancies have increased slightly from 7.21 million to 7.23 million in August. The employment rate has dipped to 3.2%, the lowest since June 2024, though layoffs remain relatively low.
- As the US government enters a shutdown, around 750,000 federal employees are affected after Congress failed to pass a funding bill. The U.S. Labor Bureau has stated that its statistical agency will pause data releases, including important monthly employment reports, during a partial shutdown.
- The White House has revealed that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet President Donald Trump in Washington, DC on October 20 to discuss the Orcas Nuclear Submarine Agreement.
- The Chinese NBS manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in September, up from August’s 49.4, exceeding market expectations of 49.6. The non-manufactured PMI, however, fell slightly to 50.0 from 50.3 in August, missing forecasts.
- Australian building permits dropped by 6% in August, following a 8.2% decline in July, surpassing the predicted 5.5% decrease.
AUD/USD approaches EMA Support just below 0.6600 for nearly 9 days
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6600 on Wednesday. Technical analysis indicates a rebound towards an upward channel on the daily chart, suggesting an active bullish bias. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is slightly above the 50 level, further supporting this bias.
On the positive side, the AUD/USD pair is exploring a capping height of 0.6707 seen in the past year on September 17, alongside an upper boundary of the ascending channel near 0.6760.
For immediate support, the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) stands at 0.6590, followed by a 50-day EMA at 0.6555 and a lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6540. If the pair breaks below the channel, it may signal a bearish shift, directing the AUD/USD towards a four-month low of 0.6414 reached on August 21.
AUD/USD: Daily Charts
Today’s Australian dollar prices
The table below illustrates the rate of change in the Australian Dollar (AUD) against major currencies today, with the Australian dollar being the weakest relative to the Swiss franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.01% | 0.25% | -0.04% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.40% | 0.11% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.32% | 0.04% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.12% | 0.32% | 0.28% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.12% | 0.24% | -0.03% | -0.15% | |
| aud | -0.25% | -0.40% | -0.32% | -0.32% | -0.24% | -0.28% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | 0.04% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.28% | 0.03% | 0.28% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.08% | -0.04% | 0.15% | 0.41% | 0.12% |
The heatmap illustrates the rate of change for the major currencies. The base currency is displayed in the left column, and the comparing currency is shown in the top row. So, if you select Australian dollars from the left and move horizontally to US dollars, the change shown in the box indicates the AUD to USD rate change.
