AUD/USD Overview
The AUD/USD pair has been hovering below the 0.7200 threshold, showing limited movement after the latest China Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI report, which indicated a drop to 51.8 in May from 52.2 in April. Currently, spot prices are lingering near the two-week peak achieved on Friday, suggesting they might gain further momentum in a rather positive technical backdrop.
On Friday, breaking through the 0.7180 level, which combines the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from May’s decline, was significant for the bullish sentiment surrounding AUD/USD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching 60 hints at positive momentum, though it’s not overwhelmingly strong. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in a favorable area, exhibiting a slight upward tilt, which supports a cautious bullish outlook.
That said, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could bolster the safe-haven US dollar’s (USD) strength, presenting a challenge for AUD/USD. Additionally, a decrease in expectations for a June interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might place a limit around the 61.8% Fibonacci price level at 0.7198. Beyond that, there’s the 78.6% level at 0.7230, with recent cycle highs near 0.7271.
On the downside, the initial support lies with the 100-period SMA at 0.7177 and the 50% retracement around 0.7175, positioned above the 38.2% level at 0.7153. Should prices drop further, stronger support appears at the 23.6% retracement at 0.7125 and swing lows near 0.7079.
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicators
Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI
The Rating Dog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, serves as a crucial indicator of business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. This index, derived from a survey of top executives from both private and state-owned firms, reflects changes from the current month relative to the previous month. The index fluctuates between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 indicating no change. Values above 50 represent expansion in the manufacturing economy, which could be positive for the Chinese yuan (CNY), while those below 50 suggest a contraction, which is usually negative for the currency.
Final release: Monday, June 1, 2026 01:45
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 51.8
Consensus: 51.4
Previous: 52.2
Source: IHS Markit
