AUD/USD Price Outlook: Aims to continue rising above 0.7000 following positive Australian jobs data

July 23, 2026

AUD/USD Market Update

On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair experienced fresh movement in Asian markets after positive Australian employment data sparked optimism for potential interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Meanwhile, a slight dip in the US dollar has brought the exchange rate to approximately 0.7020, nearing the highest point seen in over a month earlier this week.

Compounding this, rising tensions between the United States and Iran, along with fears of supply chain disruptions, have driven oil prices up to their highest since June 11. This has raised inflation worries and bolstered expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which could limit further declines for the US dollar and make traders cautious about aggressively investing in the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.

From a technical standpoint, the current price shows a modest bullish tendency in the short term, sitting above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from a decline starting at 0.7200 (the high in late May). Additionally, it’s above the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 41-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 59.45, suggesting there’s no overbought condition and supporting a generally positive outlook.

That said, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is flattening just under the zero line, indicating that while the upward momentum is indeed positive, it’s not particularly aggressive. Consequently, any potential rally may encounter resistance at the 50.0% level around 0.7033. The next key hurdle appears to be at the 61.8% retracement level of 0.7072.

Looking higher, the 78.6% retracement at 0.7129 and the cycle high area at 0.7201 present stronger resistance points. On the downside, immediate support is found at the 38.2% retracement level at 0.6993, just above the 100-period EMA at 0.6976. A more significant pullback might reveal a 23.6% retracement at 0.6944, but a more widespread bullish trend would be at risk only if the price slides towards the anchor low near 0.6865.