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SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia slightly cut its forecast for resources and energy export earnings on Monday, as a broad-based decline in commodity prices and a strong currency continue to weigh on a key source of government revenue.
Australia now expects its primary products export revenues to fall by around 10% to A$372 billion ($256 billion) for the year ending June 30, 2025, as of June, according to the Official Resources and Energy Quarterly Report. has been revised downward from its forecast of A$380 billion. Last year's revenue reached A$415 billion.
The decline is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, until 2026, reaching A$354 billion.
According to the report, commodity prices have fallen due to slower economic growth in developed countries due to the impact of rising interest rates and a slump in China, a major source of demand for steel and other primary products.
Australia's biggest export, iron ore, has been particularly hard hit by the slowdown in China's real estate sector, with prices falling by about a third this year.
The country expects iron ore export revenues to fall to A$99 billion in the year ending June 30, 2026, from A$138 billion last year.
Prices have fallen for most of the resources covered in the report, including metals critical to the transition to renewable energy, such as nickel and lithium.
Some Australian nickel mines have been forced to close due to falling prices due to a surge in supply from Indonesia.
($1 = 1.4550 Australian Dollar)
