- The Australian dollar has stagnated as employment changes came at 32.2K against a consensus forecast of 40k.
- Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in March, with market forecasts just below 4.2%.
- The US dollar received support as consumer spending was strengthened in March.
Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower USD (USD), snaps a 6-day winning streak. The AUD/USD pair is under pressure following the release of Australian employment data on Thursday. forecast 4.2%. Meanwhile, the employment change was at 32.2k against a consensus forecast of 40k.
The AUD found some support in improving global risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced a key technology product exemption from the newly proposed “mutual” tariffs. These exemptions include smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells and flat panel displays, and largely benefit products produced in China, the largest trading partner in Australia and the leading buyer of its products.
Amidst the continued uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, markets remain cautious. The Trump administration is currently considering tariffs on semiconductor and drug imports. On the domestic front, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting for April suggest that uncertainty regarding the timing of the next interest rate adjustment.
on the other hand RBA The May meeting suggested that it could be an appropriate time to reassess monetary policy. No solid decisions have been made. The market is currently priced at a 25 point rate reduction in May, with approximately 120 basis points being eased next year. We are currently paying attention to our employment report on Thursday. This will provide important labor market insights and guide the next policy move for the RBA.
The Australian dollar will be depreciated as a rebound in the US dollar due to increased consumer spending
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks USD against a basket of six major currencies, is trading at nearly 99.60 at the time of writing. Later Thursday, the US will release key economic data, including building permits, home launches, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index and weekly initial unemployment claims.
- US retail sales rose 1.4% in March, surpassing both the previous month’s 0.2% increase and the projected 1.3% increase.
- A recent consumer sentiment survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows a sharp rise in the number of households expecting higher inflation, lower employment outlook and worsening credit conditions over the coming months.
- Atlanta Federal President Rafael Bostic said in an early market session on Tuesday that the US Central Bank is on a long road to reaching its 2% inflation target, raising questions about the market’s expectations for additional interest rate cuts.
- Inflation in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.4% year-on-year in March, below market forecast of 2.6% from 2.8% in February. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is up 2.8% per year compared to the previous 3.1%, with a 3.0% estimate missing. Each month, the Headline CPI fell 0.1%, while the Core CPI rose 0.1%.
- Australia’s Westpac Leading Index’s six-month annual growth rate has been eased to 0.6% from 0.9% in February, forecasting economic momentum compared to trends over the next three to nine months.
- China’s foreign ministry said Thursday that if the US continues to make tariff-related provocations, China will simply ignore them.
- China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, consistent with the pace seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. Quarterly, GDP rose 1.2% in the first quarter and 1.6% in the last quarter, not reaching the forecast 1.4% increase.
- Meanwhile, China’s retail sales skyrocketed 5.9% year-on-year, beating expectations of over 4.2% from 4% in February. Industrial production is also excellent, with a 7.7% increase compared to 5.6% forecast and 5.9% printing in February.
Australian dollars test immediate support at 0.6350 despite the bullish bias remaining intact
The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6360 level on Thursday, and technically Indicator On a daily chart suggesting bullish prejudice. The pair exceeds the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA), but the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is held above the neutral level of 50 levels, enhancing positive momentum.
Conversely, psychological resistance was seen at the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by a four-month high of 0.6408 on February 21st.
Initial support is available at EMA for 9 days around 0.6285. A break below this level could undermine the short-term bullish trend, and could expose the pair to the downside further towards the lowest 0.5914 region since March 2020, with a significant psychological level at 0.5900.
AUD/USD: Daily Charts
Australian dollar prices today
The table below shows the rate of change in the Australian Dollar (AUD) for today’s listed major currencies. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.32% | 0.21% | 0.64% | 0.22% | 0.50% | 0.54% | 0.62% | |
| EUR | -0.32% | -0.17% | 0.28% | -0.15% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.25% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.17% | 0.43% | 0.02% | 0.32% | 0.34% | 0.43% | |
| JPY | -0.64% | -0.28% | -0.43% | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | 0.15% | -0.02% | 0.44% | 0.31% | 0.31% | 0.41% | |
| aud | -0.50% | -0.15% | -0.32% | 0.16% | -0.31% | 0.02% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.54% | -0.16% | -0.34% | 0.22% | -0.31% | -0.02% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | -0.62% | -0.25% | -0.43% | 0.04% | -0.41% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
The heatmap shows the rate of change of each other’s major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, and the estimated currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select Australian dollars from the left column and move along the horizon to US dollars, the rate of change shown in the box represents AUD (base)/USD (QUOTE).
Australian Dollar FAQ
One of the most important factors in the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the interest rate level set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As Australia is a resource-rich country, another important factor is the price of iron ore, the biggest export. The health of China’s biggest trading partner is Australia’s inflation, its growth rate and trade balance. Market sentiment – Whether investors are taking on riskier assets (risk-on) or seeking safe haven (risk-off) is another factor in risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) affects the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This affects the level of interest rates across the economy. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up and down. Compared to other major central banks, relatively high interest rates support AUD, the opposite of relatively low. RBAs can also use quantitative relaxation and tightening to influence credit conditions, along with previous Aud negative and the latter positives.
As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, the health of China’s economy has a major impact on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). If the Chinese economy is on track, they will buy more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, raising demand for AUD and increasing its value. The opposite is when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pair.
Iron ore is Australia’s largest export, with China as its main destination accounting for $118 billion a year, according to data from 2021. Therefore, iron ore prices could be a driver for the Australian dollar. Generally, as iron ore prices rise, so does AUD as aggregate demand for the currency increases. If iron ore prices fall, the opposite is true. Also, higher iron ore prices tend to be more likely to be positive for Australia’s trade balance, which is also positive for AUD.
Trade balances, the difference between what a country acquires from exports and what it pays for imports, are another factor that can affect the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces a very popular export, the currency acquires pure value from the surplus demand generated from foreign buyers seeking to purchase the export, compared to what they spend to buy the import. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD and has the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
