- The Australian dollar strengthens as China's trade surplus widens in October due to better-than-expected exports.
- Australia's trade surplus in September fell to 4.609 billion, compared to the expected 5.3 billion.
- The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday.
The Australian dollar (AUD) rose following the release of China's trade balance data on Thursday. However, the Australian dollar came under downward pressure against the US dollar (USD) following Australian trade balance data in early Asian time. There may be downside risk to the AUD/USD pair as market optimism could push the US dollar (USD) further higher following former President Donald Trump's victory in the US elections. is.
China's trade surplus in October expanded to $95.27 billion compared to the same month last year, exceeding the forecast of $75.1 billion and the previous estimate of $81.71 billion. Exports increased by 12.7% from the previous year, far exceeding the expected 5.0% increase and the previous 2.4% increase. Meanwhile, annual imports fell by 2.3%, exceeding the expected decline of 1.5% and contrasting with the previous 0.3% increase.
Australia's trade surplus in September was $4.609 billion, down from expectations of $5.3 billion and $5.284 billion in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. The trade surplus was the smallest since March, as exports declined more than imports.
Traders expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting on Thursday. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter of a point in November, indicating strong market consensus for a modest rate cut this week.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Trump's victory puts downward pressure on the Australian dollar
- Australia's exports fell by 4.3% in September, down from a 0.2% decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, imports decreased by 3.1% month-on-month in September, compared to a 0.2% decrease in August.
- The U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers Business Conditions Index for October was 56.0, up from 54.9 in September and above expectations of 53.8. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI for October was 55.0, slightly below the prior reading and forecast of 55.3.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided on Tuesday to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%, marking the eighth consecutive suspension. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock reiterated her hawkish stance, stressing the need for restrained monetary policy given persistent inflation risks and a strong labor market.
- The Australian Judo Bank Services PMI for October was 51.0, an improvement from the previous 50.6 and above the market consensus of 50.6. Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in October, but previously it was 49.8. Caixin China Services PMI also rose to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September.
- The TD-MI inflation gauge rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, up from a 0.1% rise the previous month and the highest reading since July, ahead of the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge rose 3.0% compared to 2.6% previously.
- ANZ Australian job advertisements increased by 0.3% month-on-month in October, a marked slowdown from September's upwardly revised 2.3% increase. Although the growth slowed, it was the second consecutive month of increase.
- Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday. China expressed hope that Australia will continue to strengthen the business environment and ensure fair and equal treatment of Chinese companies.
Technical analysis: Australian dollar remains below 0.6600, 9-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6570 on Thursday. Technical indicators on the daily chart indicate a possible continuation of the bearish trend. The pair is below the 9-day and 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating downward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Immediate support for AUD/USD lies near the three-month low of 0.6512, with key psychological support following at 0.6500.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may encounter resistance at the 9-day EMA at 0.6594 and further resistance at the 14-day EMA at 0.6612. A breakout above these levels would indicate an increase in momentum and could potentially target the important psychological level of 0.6700.
AUD/USD: daily chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows today's percentage change in the Australian Dollar (AUD) against major listed currencies. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | australian dollar | new zealand dollar | swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.27% | -0.15% | -0.33% | -0.76% | -0.68% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.10% | -0.29% | -0.71% | -0.63% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.27% | 0.23% | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.48% | -0.41% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | 0.10% | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.61% | -0.58% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.18% | -0.43% | -0.35% | 0.29% | |
| australian dollar | 0.76% | 0.71% | 0.48% | 0.61% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.73% | |
| new zealand dollar | 0.68% | 0.63% | 0.41% | 0.58% | 0.35% | -0.08% | 0.65% | |
| swiss franc | 0.05% | 0.00% | -0.23% | -0.11% | -0.29% | -0.73% | -0.65% |
The heat map shows the percentage change between major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select Australian Dollars from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollars, the percentage change displayed in the box represents AUD (Basic)/USD (Quote).
economic indicators
Trade balance (US dollar)
trade balance announced by General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China It is the balance of imports and exports of goods and services as a whole. A positive value indicates a trade surplus and a negative value indicates a trade deficit. This is an event that will bring some volatility to the renminbi. Since the Chinese economy influences the global economy, this economic indicator will also have an impact on the foreign exchange market. Generally, high values are considered positive (or bullish) for the RMB, and low values are considered negative (or bearish).
