The Major League Baseball season is finally here.
If you wake up early, we’ve prepared a quick Soul Series appetizer for you, but you can get the full Opening Day experience on Thursday.
Unfortunately, two games have been postponed due to predicted inclement weather, but the other 26 teams are scheduled to play unless the weather breaks in Baltimore.
PricePicks has a complete projection board.
Here are some of my favorite targets for opening day.
Pitcher Framber Valdez has fewer than 5.5 strikeouts.
Valdez will be the Astros’ Opening Day starter for the third straight year.
In last season’s opener against the White Sox, he went five scoreless innings, throwing 85 pitches and four strikeouts against one of the weakest offensive lines in MLB.
In the team’s 2022 season opener, Valdez pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Angels, throwing 84 pitches and recording six strikeouts. The Angels finished that season with the league’s highest strikeout rate.
This year, he will be tasked with playing against the Yankees, who have added Juan Soto to a lineup that already includes Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Valdez’s strikeout rate has been around league average for his career, and he was only slightly above average last season at 24.8%. The Astros left-hander struck out 32.5 percent of left-handed batters last season, but only 23.4 percent of right-handed batters.
He will face three left-handed pitchers in this matchup, two of which are Juan Soto (19.2% career strikeout rate against left-handed batters) and Anthony Rizzo (15.8% career strikeout rate against left-handed batters). .
Assuming he stays within the same 85-pitch range as his past two Opening Day starters, Valdez should record fewer strikeouts than the projected 5.5.
Nestor Cortez has less than 4.5 strikeouts as a pitcher.
After an unfortunate injury to ace Gerrit Cole, Cortez was given a surprise start in the Yankees’ season opener.
“Mean Nestor” wasn’t as mean last season as he took a step back after two lights out seasons in the Bronx. He had a series of seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA, but his ERA rose to 4.97. His fundamental metrics confirmed the decline, as he posted his 4.49 FIP and his 4.35 SIERA.
Cortez’s strikeout rate also dropped from 26.5% in 2023 and 27.5% in 2022 to 25.2% for the third consecutive season. The southpaw’s strikeout rate also varies widely, with right-handed pitchers at just 24.1 percent, compared to 31.1 percent for left-handed pitchers. .
The matchup between Cortez and Houston will be one of the most difficult games in baseball for left-handed pitchers. The Astros had the lowest strikeout rate in MLB against left-handed pitchers last season, at just 18.2%.
Houston plans to have only two left-handed hitters in the opening day lineup. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are two of the best left-handed hitters in the world.
This spring, Cortez led the way with just 62 pitches. He threw 80 pitches in his first start of 2023, but I think that’s about all he’ll land against the Astros — that is, if things go well.
I think Cortez records fewer strikeouts than his projected 4.5.
Mookie Betts batter score 7.5 or higher
The Dodgers will face Miles Mykolas and the Cardinals in what will be the best matchup of any team on Opening Day.
Betts is already off to a great start with multiple hits in each game of the Soul Series. He’s the top hitter in what is widely considered the best batting lineup in baseball, giving him multiple avenues to rack up fantasy points.
Last season, Betts posted the fourth-best wOBA (.407) in MLB, finishing fourth in runs scored (126) and sixth in RBIs (107). He hit 39 home runs and added 14 stolen bases, an elite performance across the board.
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Mikolas struggled last season with a 4.78 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 15.9%. There will be plenty of opportunities for Betts to put the ball in play.
Betts should be able to beat the expected batter score of 7.5 given that he will be facing pitchers with few strikeouts and that he is at the top of the Dodgers’ strong batting lineup.
