The Mets will conclude their four-game series against the Cubs on Thursday afternoon in Queens.
Unfortunately for the home team, starting pitcher Adrian Hauser hasn’t been playing well and his early season numbers indicate we shouldn’t get our hopes up.
Chicago, on the other hand, is starting a young pitcher with a lot of upside, an upside worth betting on for his young career.
Cubs vs Mets odds
| team | money line | run line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| cubs | -105 | -1.5 (+160) | o8.5 (-102) |
| mets | -115 | +1.5 (-192) | u8.5 (-118) |
Cubs vs. Mets Prediction
(1:10 p.m. ET, New York)
Hauser had more free passes (16) than strikeouts (14) in his first 23 innings and had the worst batting profile of his career (93 mph average, 2nd percentile, 10% barrel rate, 11th percentile). is progressing at the pace of ).
He lacks purity and relies on pinpoint positioning and the ability to induce weak contact. However, he has struggled in both areas, with the Location+ metric dropping him 5 points year-over-year (103 vs. 98) and his ground ball rate dropping 6 points (47% vs. 41%).
Hauser never has an ERA above 8 for an entire season, but his expected ERA and FIP are above 6, so he shouldn’t be projected to be better than a replacement-level starting pitcher.
On the other hand, Cubs starting pitcher Ben Brown is an attractive player.
Brown has three plus pitches, utilizing a high-90s fastball and a knuckle curve with a nasty drop action, the latter with a 132 stuff+ mark and a 40% whiff rate.
He used this weapon to decimate the minors, striking out 35 percent of batters on his way up from High-A to Triple-A.
His command and batted ball profile still have room for improvement, as does his overall statistical profile (4.30 ERA, 5.76 expected ERA).
But I believe some of his numbers were inflated by two tough games. He allowed six runs as a reliever in the season opener against Texas, and last week he had a three-run, seven-hit performance at Fenway, the famous pitcher’s park.
Between those two extraordinary performances, Brown appeared in five games as a starter and reliever, allowing nine hits and two runs in 17 2/3 innings, with 17 strikeouts and four walks.
He showed a concerted effort to find a better location, leading to a FIP in the low 3.00s and an expected FIP in the mid 3.00s.
He is an integral part of Chicago’s rise to the top of the National League Central Division.
Expect some more great games soon, but I’m confident he can play against the Mets, who boast an average lineup against right-handed pitchers (100wRC+).
Chicago’s bats have cooled significantly, largely due to poor swing decisions as the Cubs have had a 30% chase rate and 14% swinging strike rate over the past two weeks.
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Cubs vs. Mets picks
It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cubs get back on track considering there’s no way Hauser will miss the bat.
The Mets have such a great bullpen advantage over the Cubs that I’d rather avoid any late-game mishaps and bet directly on the Brown-Hauser matchup.
So I’m going to take the Cubs on the first half money line.
