If Democrats retain their majority after the 2024 elections, the Senate filibuster could be in jeopardy as two of the measure’s strongest defenders, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), stand to step down.
“That would be on the table,” Jim Kessler, a former senior aide to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, told Fox News Digital.
But, he said, “I doubt that will happen.”
“If Senate Democrats maintain their majority, we will likely see a return to efforts to enforce the long-respected filibuster because Senators Manchin and Sinema won’t be able to block it,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist, former spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and former chief of staff for the Senate Republican Conference.
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If Chuck Schumer and Democrats maintain their Senate majority, they may be able to find the votes to reform the filibuster with the resignations of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. (Getty Images)
Both Manchin and Sinema have announced they will not seek reelection.
Kessler said there wasn’t enough support among Democrats to completely abolish the filibuster. “There’s been a lot more smoke than fire in this case,” he said.
Many blamed Manchin and Sinema for blocking reform of the current filibuster system, but a veteran Democratic aide suggested there were many more skeptical senators in the caucus who used the two rebels as a shield: “If they were skeptical, they didn’t have to say anything,” he explained.
Kessler did not name any current senators who might oppose ending the practice entirely, but noted that the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, who was often described as an institutionalist, would likely have opposed such a move.
Manchin told Fox News Digital that if Democrats end the filibuster, “it would be the saddest day in the history of the United States of America.”
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Manchin is not seeking reelection. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
“It would be the saddest day in America and the responsibility rests on them. If they do away with the filibuster they will be doing away with democracy and the very essence of our country,” he added.
Sinema’s office declined to comment to Fox News Digital.
Kessler said it’s probably unlikely the filibuster will be abolished entirely, but he noted that “that doesn’t mean there aren’t rules changes that could affect the filibuster.”
In 2022, Democrats tried to reintroduce what’s known as a “talking filibuster,” a standard practice for much of the 20th century until the 1970s. The reforms put in place then allowed senators to delay legislation without the lengthy floor speeches that typically accompany a filibuster.
The reform would allow Democrats to move to a final vote on a bill without 60 senators agreeing to end debate in a procedural vote, meaning that bills could be passed by a simple majority after a period of debate.
The change failed on a 48-52 vote, with Manchin and Sinema joining 50 Senate Republicans in voting against it.
Democrats were scrambling to find a way around their Republican colleagues to pass voting rights legislation. “You may believe that the filibuster is a good thing, but isn’t it more important to protect the right to vote and prevent its erosion?” Schumer asked at the time. According to Politico.
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Schumer could not change the current filibuster. (Elizabeth Franz/via The Associated Press)
Reinstating the filibuster would put enormous pressure on those trying to stall legislation and would once again require senators to be on the floor and speak at all times. President Biden endorsed the reform at the time, which would be particularly helpful in advancing his legislative priorities.
“I don’t think we need to get rid of the filibuster. We should do it the way we did when I first came to the Senate a long time ago,” he said in the 2021 speech. ABC News “I had to stand up and lead the floor and keep talking,” he said in an interview.
Even Democrats who are most vulnerable in November’s elections told Fox News Digital they support bringing those reforms back into the fold if they can maintain their majority.
“I definitely support those kinds of reforms,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., who is seeking reelection in the battleground state.
Sen. Bob Casey (Democrat, Pennsylvania), who is also in a fierce battleground state, said of the reform, “I’d like to vote again on the 60-vote rule. It would be nice to have another vote.”
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There are several incumbent Democrats in competitive races. (Getty Images: Anna Moneymaker, Drew Ungerer, Ethan Miller, Sarah Silbiger)
“Senator Tester does not support abolishing the filibuster,” a spokesman for Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said.
Republican-leaning state Democrats are embroiled in perhaps the most competitive election in the country.
But the spokesman said Tester “supports a negotiated filibuster that protects the minority party’s rights and forces them to explain to the American people why they are slowing down the House,” indicating he is in line with two other incumbent Democrats.
Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), both of whom face tough battleground state elections in November, declined to comment when contacted by Fox News Digital.
Schumer’s office did not comment to Fox News Digital on whether filibuster reform would be a priority if Democrats retained the majority.
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Democrats were pressured to change the filibuster to pass bills on abortion and voting rights. (Javin Botsford/The Washington Post)
Even if Democrats won enough votes to enact such reforms, “there would still be good reason to pause on this,” explained Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University.
Reeher said there’s a good chance that Republicans will hold a majority in the Senate in the near future, and that the changes will benefit them in the same way they did the Democratic majority. “It’s entirely possible that if the Democrats change the rules, they could lose their majority in the next midterm elections or the next presidential election, especially if the Republicans stick together,” he said.
“It’s hard for me to weigh the benefits and risks for Democrats,” Reeher added.
Kessler also pointed this out, saying, “The opposing team will have to play by these rules.”
One of the arguments made by Senate Democrats, Kessler recalled, was, “If we don’t do it, Republicans will. They’ll do it first.”
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He also predicted “tremendous pressure” on the next Senate Republican Majority Leader to abolish the filibuster, something he said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) would never do.
Bonjean warned that if Democrats can enforce the “long-respected” filibuster, the “liberal agenda” will be “rammed through Congress.”
“The Senate will soon be transformed into another House of Representatives,” he argued.
Democrats may have the power to change the filibuster if they gain a majority in the next Congress, but they may have a hard time maintaining it in the November elections. Senate Democrats face their toughest electoral map in years, with five incumbents up for reelection in battleground states across the country. Seven of the most competitive races in the Senate this term are for seats currently held by senators aligned with Democrats, according to nonpartisan political handicapper The Associates. Cook Political Report.
