A media favorite to perform at the nation’s most-watched events: It’s not a cliché, but public bettors are bound to pounce on Travis Kelce props like bees to honey.
Even after a seemingly underwhelming regular season, Kelce came into his own throughout the playoffs, officially becoming the all-time leader in playoff receptions in the AFC Championship Game.
All of this has led to some inflation in Kelce’s Super Bowl LVIII prop and should be approached accordingly. In some markets, Kelce’s turnaround is worth counting on, and in others, the price is too high.
Travis Kelce Super Bowl Props and Predictions
First Touchdown Scorer (+800, FanDuel)
One of the reasons Kelce’s receiving prop is so appealing is that the 49ers haven’t presented the strongest secondary he’s faced in these playoffs.
If you’re going to roll the dice on him, this is where it’s most valuable.
Patrick Mahomes completed passes to Kelce on the opening drives of all three playoff games. All of them led to points.
Kelce has scored his first touchdown in three of the Chiefs’ last six playoff games, including the Chiefs’ first touchdown in five of those games.
We know Kelce’s 22.7 percent goal share will be critical to the Chiefs’ success. Kansas City hasn’t failed to score in the first quarter since the 2021 AFC Championship Game.
He has solid value here, as Mahomes should turn to his favorite weapon when he inevitably sets the pace.
Less than 6.5 Receptions (+118, FanDuel)
This is where things get dangerous. Since the Super Bowl line opened, Kelce’s reception prop has jumped from 5.5 to 6.5, and the over’s -144 price just isn’t worth the gamble.
Kelce just grabbed all 11 targets and won a monster AFC championship, which is a big reason why the bait is hanging high. He had five or more receptions in the regular season, but just one so far in the playoffs.
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Isaiah Pacheco has proven to be a reliable rushing option recently. He has 21 carries per game and at least 68 yards in four straight games, so how he’s used should play a big role in the game script.
It’s all too obvious a prediction that Kelce will be on the Chiefs’ path to victory. He’ll be available in big moments, but a fade over would make for an interesting return.
Longest reception of 20.5 yards or more (-120, BetMGM)
Important moments like this are what I want Kelce to overcome.
No. 87 is a natural chunk playmaker and is ready to take advantage in the middle of the field no matter what coverage San Francisco uses to emulate him.
Kelce had a play of at least 21 yards in each of three playoff games and scored seven times during the regular season. This season, he averaged 53.9 air yards on 0.5 deep targets per game, ranking third overall among tight ends.
San Francisco had the ninth-worst secondary in defensive yards after the catch, with Kelce gaining 31.2 yards per game in this department.
Kelce has the longest catch of at least 21 yards in each of his last two Super Bowl appearances. He’s a great playmaker on the biggest stage. His donations should arrive in bulk on Sunday.
