The defending national champion University of Michigan Wolverines will begin their title defense against Mountain West powerhouse Fresno State on Saturday night in Ann Arbor.
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bet365 bonus code NYPNEWS Pick: Fresno State vs Michigan
No. 9 Michigan opens its season with a home game against the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday night, with the Wolverines coming out on top by 21 points.
That spread makes sense, but I think the point total will be less than 45.5 on this bet.
Michigan is expected to overwhelm Fresno State defensively and deploy a ball-control attack that will limit possession.
The Wolverines are expected to rely heavily on the running game, especially considering they have yet to name a full-time starting quarterback and are set to use both Alex Orji and Davis Warren.
With two quarterbacks practicing, it's hard to imagine Michigan winning by a traditional wide margin, plus the Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the Group of Five and should offer some resistance.
The Wolverines also have one of the best defenses in the country, so there's no reason for the offense to rush and risk turnovers.
Michigan's defense, led by elite defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, should be just as solid as it was last year, when it only allowed 9.5 points per game.
Michigan's non-conference games against Group of Five teams last season are also instructive: They beat East Carolina 30-3 in Week 1, beat UNLV 35-7 the next game and beat Bowling Green 31-6 in Week 3.
Despite having future first-round draft pick JJ McCarthy at quarterback, Michigan never reached 40 points in any of those games and finished every game well under 45 points in total.
Expect this to be a defensive game without much possession and take the under with bet365 bonus code NYP News.
Pick: Under 45.5 points (-110)
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