Betting odds, value picks, insight for 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2

June 10, 2024

The world’s best players have gathered in Pinehurst, North Carolina, for the 2024 U.S. Open, golf’s toughest tournament and the year’s third major.

Both PGA Tour and LIV Golf players are eligible to compete, but only 12 LIV players are included among the 156 competitors.

Still, those who qualify are among the game’s elite, so

US Open odds:

Latest Odds 2024 U.S. Open, Presented by DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +300
Rory McIlroy +1000
Xander Schauffele +1200
Viktor Hovland +1600
Collin Morikawa +1600
Bryson DeChambeau +1600
Brooks Koepka +2000
Ludvig Oberg +2000
Jon Rahm +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +3500
Justin Thomas +3500
Cameron Smith +3500
Patrick Cantlay +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4500
Max Homa +4500
Shane Lowry +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Tom Kim +5500
Jordan Spieth +5500

Wyndham Clark, U.S. Open — Wyndham Clark on the 14th hole during the final round of the 2023 U.S. Open.

US Open Predictions

Fresh off another Memorial Tournament win, Scottie Scheffler comes into Pinehurst 2 as the overwhelming 3-to-1 favorite to win. Many were surprised by Scheffler’s gaudy +450 numbers at the PGA Championship, but now, a month later, his odds are even better.

His game has no weaknesses from tee to green, his short game is severely underrated, and considering Pinehurst No. 2 is a ball-striker’s course that requires a deft touch around the greens, it’s no surprise Scheffler’s odds are so low, especially considering how well he’s done this season.

Still, plenty of other prospects have come to the Tar Heel State looking to make history, so here are some worthy names to look out for this week.

Cameron Smith returns to the top ten

Last year, Cameron Smith finished alone in fourth place at Los Angeles Country Club, a course that perfectly suited his short game. This year, Smith will use his exceptional chipping and pitching ability, as well as his world-class putting, to once again compete for the U.S. Open title on a course that features a “Turtle Back” green complex.

Cameron Smith, US Open — Cameron Smith at the 2023 U.S. Open.

Smith struggled at LIV Golf Houston, finishing 11 over par over the final six holes, but he has proven himself on the biggest stage in the past and will look to prove it again this week.

Since winning the Open at St. Andrews in 2022, he has recorded three top-10 finishes in major championships, and odds of +320 to add another win are a solid offer.

Collin Morikawa finishes in the top five again

Without Scheffler, Collin Morikawa might already be bringing home some trophies in 2024. Instead, he’s recorded six top 10s this season, five of which have come since early April.

His game is trending in the right direction, especially his ball striking, which wasn’t up to par earlier this year, which is why he ranks 51st in strokes gained approaching the green on the PGA Tour this season. In 2023, he ranks second to Scheffler in that metric.

Last week, Morikawa showed he is improving his iron game by improving his score by over five strokes approaching the green and finishing fourth among Memorial competitors. If he continues this form, Morikawa should be able to finish highly on Sunday. At +350, a top-five finish would be worthy for the two-time major champion.

Collin Morikawa, PGA Tour, Memorial Tournament — Collin Morikawa hits his tee shot on the par-3 fourth hole during the final round of the 2024 Memorial Tournament.

Both Tony Finau and Bryson DeChambeau claim the same thing.

Another solid iron player, Tony Finau, arrives in North Carolina looking for his first major title. He’s come close to winning it many times before, with 10 top-10 finishes in majors, but hasn’t won a title since the 2021 PGA Championship.

Still, he finished tied for 18th last month at Valhalla and tied for 8th most recently at Muirfield Village. Finau currently ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in strokes to the green and 16th in distance to the hole. Regardless of pin location, you have to hit the ball to the middle of the green at Pinehurst and Finau has demonstrated that ability every year. We’re +450 projecting him to finish in the top 10.

Conversely, DeChambeau’s strength is not his iron play, but his mental toughness and distance off the tee that have consistently put him at the top of the leaderboards. His play doesn’t necessarily translate to a runner-up finish at Pinehurst on paper, but he’s been so good in the majors this season that it would be foolish to count him out. So, even though the odds are short, I expect DeChambeau to finish in the top 10 again at +180.

Long shot candidate

Kim Si Woo has been in good form this season, recording 10 top 25 finishes in the 16 tournaments he has played in. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green and 24th in strokes gained around the green, proving he can scramble when necessary.

But his putter has let him down this season and he ranks 162nd on the tour in putting strokes gained. Still, Kim is playing at the same level as he was second at Pinehurst, making him a worthy target for a top-10 finish at +650.

Tom Hogue, PGA Tour, Memorial Tournament — Tom Hogue during the third round of the 2024 Memorial Tournament.

The other two longshot candidates we expect to see are Tom Hogue and Dean Burmester.

Hoge ranks third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green, behind only Scottie Scheffler and Corey Connors, and with a record of +1100 for a top-10 finish, Hoge is worth it. If his short game improves, he’s a contender and has the talent to surprise many.

Burmester has won three times since November and is a rising star at LIV Golf. The South African can hit the ball far and finished tied for 12th at the PGA Championship. Don’t be surprised to see his name on the leaderboard again. Burmester is a solid pick to finish in the top 10 at +700.

Don’t bet on Scottie Scheffler. The returns are too low.

If you’ve been paying attention to golf lately, you know that Scottie Scheffler is on a historic run. It wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if he wins the U.S. Open this year, but even if he does, he’ll have zero market value.

If Scheffler wins, you’d be better off hoping that another player finishes in the top five or top 10. As the world number one, Scheffler has odds of -275 to finish in the top 10 and -140 to finish in the top five, which are ridiculous numbers that bettors should avoid.

Stay tuned for our Playing Through staff picks for the 2024 U.S. Open, scheduled to be published on the morning of Tuesday, June 11th.

Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation Playing Through. Follow For more golf articles, follow us on Twitter Jack Mirko In the same way.