Where did all the points go?
A trend first noted by Tom Haberstroh Points and fouls have dropped significantly since the All-Star break, continuing to the point where sharp bettors started an incredible streak on the under on March 1st.
NBA teams have dropped nearly four points per game since the All-Star break, going from an average of 115.5 ppg to 111.85 ppg.
This means that the average score out of a total of 231 points has dropped to 223.7.
But is this just poor shooting dispersion and a small sample size of 141 games versus the first 820 games of the year?
The difference in shooting percentage is unlikely to be the culprit, with only a 0.75% decrease (from 47.6 percent to 46.85 percent) since the All-Star hiatus.
It’s much more likely to be from free throws, which have decreased significantly in frequency, down 11.5 percent since the All-Star break, and individual foul calls have also decreased by 12.7 percent since Feb. 18.
A league spokesperson told the Post: “There has been no direction from the league to call the game any other way.”
But the numbers tell a different story, with foul calls before the All-Star break reaching 19.4 personal fouls per team per game, but in the 141 games since then, a 12.7 percent change to 16.93 personal fouls per game. It was reduced to 1 personal foul.
On average, they saw 38.8 individual fouls per game. Now he’s at 33.86, which is about 8.5 fouls per quarter, down from 9.7 per quarter.
The pace and flow of basketball has been a hot topic at the top of the league, especially executive Joe Dumars, who has poured cold water on the idea that NBA scoring needs to change.
“There is no strong desire from me or anyone else in the league office to see a certain score.” Dumars said, “Oh.”n February 1.
But legendary coach Steve Kerr said days earlier that NBA scoring was out of control.
“I think there will be an absolute change. [to be made],” Kerr said on Jan. 27 after Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic both scored 70 or more points earlier in the month.
The NBA said there were no new instructions for referees, but several players notorious for receiving the whistle in friendly games, including Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, have been on the line less often in recent days. There is.
| player | Free throw attempts per game before All-Star break | Post the number of free throw attempts per game during the All-Star break | Rate of change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic (10 games played) | 9.3 | 7.1 | 23.66% decrease |
| Jalen Brunson (6 games played) | 6.3 | 5.3 | 15.87% decrease |
| Damian Lillard (9 games played) | 7.6 | 5.1 | 32.89% decrease |
| Stephen Curry (9 games played) | 5.1 | 2.3 | 54.9% decrease |
Note that these are all point guards and appear to be treated differently by the referees.
However, forwards like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant saw no change in their free throw attempts during this period.
As Haberstroh pointed out, the crux of the story is that an offensive player initiates contact with a defender, resulting in a foul call, slowing down the pace of play, inflating statistics and scores, and overall This is a compilation of works of poor quality for the fans who watch them.
When answering questions like this, it’s wise to ask: What other factors might differentiate the first half of the season from the second half?
Tanking immediately comes to mind. Perhaps the team is out of sorts and underperforming, which would explain the speed of change we’re seeing from the team’s free throws.
However, when compared to the same period last year (delayed by one day to account for leap years), free throws are down even more year-over-year.
Individual fouls decreased by 14.48 percent per game for the year between last year’s All-Star break and the second Monday in March.
Free throws are also down 14.17 percent year-over-year per game during this period (16.93 free throws per game since the All-Star break this season, compared to 19.8 free throws per game in 2023). book free throws).
In total, points per game are down 3.2% during this period. This may seem small, but it’s substantial, and it’s something the betting giant figured out before the break.
The under on games was one of the least profitable bets you could make this season until mid-January.
Things started to change around that time, and now it has become a big trend. Of course the books are going to be corrected, they are a business founded on bucking trends like this.
However, since the All-Star break, the under’s batting average is nearly 60 percent (98-66-1).
Post-action bettors reported a 71% hit rate on the under, and the books revised their strategy shortly thereafter.
Do you want to bet on the NBA?
Edges always evaporate in the world of gambling because books use freely available data.
But this appears to be either a strange anomaly that oddly aligns with Kerr and Dumars’ comments, or a genuine change in the way the NBA operates.
