Relations between China and the United States, which date back to a bloody standoff during the Korean War, may be entering the most dangerous period in decades.
An increasingly anxious Xi Jinping may see the remaining month before the presidential transition as his last opportunity to take advantage of the extremely risk-averse Biden administration to take military action against Taiwan. despite him public declaration Biden has said he intends to intervene militarily to protect Taiwan, but is likely to decide that issues of war and peace should be left to his successor.
China's actions toward Taiwan will present the incoming Trump administration with a fait accompli and a strategic dilemma, especially if China avoids a full-scale invasion and resorts to blockade or occupation. Kinmen (Kinmen) or other islands of Taiwan. Mr. Xi calculated that a returned President Trump would be reluctant to fight for a second term to reverse “moderate” Chinese aggression, just as Mr. Biden was willing to accept. Maybe there is. “Limited incursion” into Ukraine In his first term, President Trump failed to even attempt to undo President Vladimir Putin's annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, but the Obama-Biden administration meekly accepted and likely fulfilled it. You could say that. President Obama promised Putin in 2012 “flexibility” after reelection.
Recent developments in China have raised the possibility that Mr. Xi will take drastic action against Taiwan. Mr. Xi has spent more than a decade on an ostensible anti-corruption purge, placing Xi supporters in key positions throughout the Chinese Communist Party's political and military establishment, before calling them incompetent, corrupt, or having personal personal problems with him. The government continues to arrest officials it deems disloyal to the government. of Two recently in the fall Defense Minister Dong Jun and Admiral Miao Hua.
Some respected Western academics believe that high-level personnel chaos is something like this: raise doubts Regarding the reliability of the Chinese military and its ability to carry out a successful Taiwan operation. But Washington cannot afford to be complacent. The important role of deception and surprise in China's strategy. Conventional wisdom suggests that now is an opportune time for China to strike first, as the prospects for action against Taiwan have diminished.
Presenting the world with a fait accompli is what Beijing successfully accomplished in the Korean War, Tibet, East Turkestan, Vietnam, India, Tiananmen Square, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea. This includes a myriad of step-by-step violations of Taiwan's sovereignty and international law, such as closing the high seas of the Taiwan Strait to aircraft carriers from all countries except China.
Each of China's actions created a new version of the status quo, placing the onus on the United States and the West for disrupting it. This is similar to the predicament of a football or soccer player who retaliates against a terrible but invisible attack and then absorbs the penalty all by himself.
Western governments are inherently reluctant to shoulder the burden due to excessive fear of escalation. The restraint of paralysis inevitably leaves the initiative in the hands of the attacker. Their psychological warfare has succeeded in convincing the West that China, Moscow, Pyongyang, and Tehran are not afraid of a major war. In that case, some, if not all, regimes would actually collapse.
Biden and Trump have a historically unique opportunity to upend and reverse that destructive dynamic. Both countries believe that if there is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, whether under the declining Biden administration or the incoming Trump second term, either Biden or Trump will bring about a decisive movement response and the other will A joint declaration could be made with strong and public support. This would reflect a unified America.
The time for the United States to issue a credible warning to Beijing is now, not after hostilities have begun. China has been preparing for overt action against Taiwan for years and is currently taking similar action. Large-scale new military exercises take place around the island. Taiwan Ministry of Defense report China is China and the United States assembled the largest military fleet since Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996, which the traumatized Clinton administration said nearly brought them into conflict.
President Clinton had dispatched the carrier battle groups USS Nimitz and USS Independence toward the Taiwan Strait. suddenly drove them back When Beijing threatened “Sea of Fire” Once they come in. Kurt Campbell, then assistant secretary of defense, called the episode repeatedly “Our own Cuban Missile Crisis. … We were staring into the abyss.” He and other Clinton and Obama veterans, now deputy secretaries of state, were the most effective against Chinese adventurism. is unlikely to support the kind of strong Biden-Trump cooperation proposed here as a deterrent.
Mr. Biden should strongly and clearly reiterate that his administration will intervene militarily if China attacks or blockades any part of Taiwan, this time without any weakening. “Clarification” From his administration. President Trump should support this statement and commit to continuing the policy of deterrence beyond January 20th.
Their joint warning to Mr. Xi should also include a commitment to recognize Taiwan's political and diplomatic independence if China initiates hostilities. Biden and Trump should declare: The war would mean independence for Taiwan, overturning the constant threat of the Chinese government. “Independence means war”“They should remind the Chinese government of the Taiwan Relations Act.” state,”[E]The establishment of diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China is based on the expectation that Taiwan's future will be determined by peaceful means. “[ingdiplomaticrelationswiththePeople'sRepublicofChinarestsupontheexpectationthatthefutureofTaiwanwillbedeterminedbypeacefulmeans”[ingdiplomaticrelationswiththePeople’sRepublicofChinarestsupontheexpectationthatthefutureofTaiwanwillbedeterminedbypeacefulmeans”
Finally, to reinforce the message, either Biden or Trump should send a carrier battle group to the Taiwan Strait. First time since 2007This is the second such passage since 1995. China did not have an aircraft carrier when it blockaded the United States in 1996. There are now threetreating the high seas of the Strait like a Chinese lake.
Official reports of small-scale U.S. combatants crossing the strait (Operation Freedom of Navigation) appear to have declined in recent months. Before Xi Jinping concludes that the presidential transition will give Taiwan the green light, the time is near for both Biden and Trump to provide real and credible deterrence.
Joseph Bosco served as the Secretary of Defense's Director of China Affairs from 2005 to 2006 and Director of the Asia-Pacific Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief from 2009 to 2010. He is an adjunct fellow at the Institute for Korean American Studies and a member of the Advisory Board of the Global Taiwan Institute and the Advisory Board of the Vandenberg Coalition..
