President Biden’s re-election campaign is eyeing North Carolina as a state it could flip in 2024, but former President Trump narrowly won the last time the two sides faced off.
The Biden campaign acknowledges it will take a “constant effort” to reach every possible voter by November, especially given the gubernatorial race that could boost Biden. , the Tar Heel State is seen as an opportunity.
But strategists question how achievable that goal is, given that the state hasn’t been under a Democratic administration since 2008 and was Trump’s choice in his past two White House bids. ing.
“It’s still an ambitious stage, but there’s no doubt that the state is involved,” said Doug Hay, a Republican strategist. “Trump should win. If I was betting on that, Trump would win.”
North Carolina is part of the Biden campaign’s route to No. 270 strategy, which passes through key battleground states including the so-called blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Battlegrounds in the West, including Nevada and Arizona. Southern states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
North Carolina is included as part of a six-week, $30 million advertising blitz that the campaign announced after the State of the Union address to put more money into battleground states. Biden recently conducted radio interviews in Fayetteville and Charlotte around Super Tuesday to reach out to North Carolina’s black voters, one of several voting factions key to further victory.
Biden and Vice President Harris will visit North Carolina on March 26 as part of an effort to visit every battleground state in March.
Dolly McMillan, the Biden campaign’s North Carolina communications director, told The Hill: “While President Biden is fighting for us, Donald Trump is fighting for billionaires, big corporations, our families and our economy. “North Carolinians know that we are fighting for extreme policies that negatively impact the United States.” “Our campaign will continue to communicate with every corner of this state to reject President Trump’s attacks on our families and move forward with President Biden for another four years.”
The campaign currently has a $155 million war chest, but other than spending and infrastructure, the main factor that strategists say could help Biden in the Tar Heel State is that far-right Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is on the ballot. It is said that the gubernatorial election is included in the paper. .
“Given the very weak Republican gubernatorial candidates in North Carolina and the very sophisticated operations of the Democratic candidates, Biden The team will have an even better chance to win there this time around, which they narrowly lost,” said Michael LaRosa, who served as first lady Jill Biden’s traveling press secretary during the 2020 campaign. .
Last time, Trump narrowly defeated Biden in North Carolina by less than 1 percentage point. The last Democrat to win the state in the presidential election was then-Democratic candidate Barack Obama, but he won re-election in the state in 2012, beating Republican candidate Mitt Romney by 2 percentage points. Defeated. Trump first ran for the White House in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton by nearly four points and winning the state.
Mr. Trump holds a 7.4-point lead over Mr. Biden in North Carolina, according to the poll tally, which is wider than the former president’s lead in other battleground states.
Considering that Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was re-elected to a second term when Trump won the state in 2020, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein will win in North Carolina in 2024. It could be a divisive situation, with Trump winning the state.
The Republican nominee for superintendent, who oversees North Carolina’s public schools, also worries some moderate Republicans. Michelle Moreau’s social media posts calling for former President Obama to be publicly executed have emerged. CNN reported.
Given the lineup of Republican candidates, Democrats think it’s a good idea to focus on North Carolina.
“This is a smart bet,” said Ivan Zapien, a former Democratic National Committee official. “Republicans have nominated some down-ballot candidates who are not going to do well in the suburbs, assuming the suburbs are working the same way they have always been.” [in] last cycle. It’s ripe for pickup. ”
Still, Democrats acknowledge it’s an uphill battle.
“North Carolina is ripe for flipping, but it’s still North Carolina,” LaRosa said.
Republicans like Mr. Hay, from North Carolina, argue that abolishing the state is not an inevitable conclusion given demographic trends.
“There is also an outside chance that Democrats might support this bill because of its proximity to the state, particularly the state’s rapid growth in two areas: Charlotte, Raleigh and its suburbs,” he said.
Growth in areas like Charlotte and Raleigh constitutes an increase in young professional women living in the suburbs, giving Democrats a better-than-expected outcome in 2022 after the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade contributed to.
Black voters are also an important voting bloc in North Carolina, which has 11 historically black colleges and universities.
Jim Kessler, executive vice president of Third Way Policy, compared North Carolina and Georgia, where the state’s large turnout from primarily black voters helped push Biden behind in 2020. It was based on support.
“Both parties are seeing an increase in the percentage of voters with college degrees, which is critical for Democrats. , North Carolina is starting to look like a state that Democrats should win, he said.
This article was updated at 6:17 p.m.
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