A survey of Minnesota voters released Monday showed President Biden holding a four-point lead over former President Trump in the state’s hypothetical general election.
In Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Poll The survey was conducted June 3-5, 2024, and found that 45% of Minnesota voters supported Biden, 41% supported Trump, 6% supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% supported “someone else.”
Trump has recently targeted Minnesota, a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972. He nearly won the state in 2016, falling 1.5 percentage points behind Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, but lost the state to Biden by 7 points in 2020.
“We are going to win this state,” Trump said last month in a speech at the state Republican Party’s annual Lincoln-Reagan dinner in St. Paul.
“This November, Minnesotans are going to say to Bad Joe Biden, right? The Apprentice? ‘You’re fired!'” Trump said in his speech, referring to his former reality TV show and a catchphrase he used on the show.
The new poll shows both candidates largely retaining their 2020 supporters: Biden retains 87% of 2020 voters, with 1% backing Trump, 5% backing Kennedy and 2% backing someone else, while Trump retains 89% of 2020 voters, with 2% backing Biden and 4% backing Kennedy.
Independent respondents were split, with 35% backing Biden, 37% backing Trump and 13% backing Kennedy.
In contrast to recent national polls, Biden appears to do well among younger voters surveyed, while Trump has drawn support from older Americans. Among adults ages 18-34, Biden received 53% support, compared with Trump’s 35% and Kennedy’s 7%. Among adults 65 and older, Trump led with 51%, Biden with 38% and Kennedy with 5%.
The poll found a big enthusiasm gap among voters who said they planned to vote for one of the two candidates: 62% of voters who planned to vote for Trump in 2024 were “very enthusiastic” about voting for their candidate, double the percentage of those who voted for Biden in 2024 (31%).
The survey found that Biden supporters overwhelmingly cited “protecting democracy” as the issue that would most influence how they would vote, at 47%. The second most influential issue was climate change and the environment, chosen by 15% of Biden supporters.
Voters who voted for Trump were divided on “the economy and jobs,” cited by 40%, and “immigration,” cited by 33%.
Biden has a slim lead over Trump in Minnesota with 45.5% approval rating, well above the former president’s 44.9%, according to The Hill/Decision Desk polling average.
The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll includes 800 registered Minnesota voters who said they are likely to vote in the November election. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.
