If President Biden is excluded from the presidential race by elite Democrats, the most obvious replacement would be Kamala Harris.
Many experts say Vice President Biden is already ahead of Donald Trump before he has even had a chance to make his case.
I’m not in the prediction business, but I’ve been around it long enough to know that DC pundits have no idea how voters will react to candidates.
History is littered with certainties and must-see insights. Many voters are reliable partisans. Many others are driven by intuition and emotion rather than the rigid rationalism that experts tend to assign to them.
So it would be a mistake to think that Harris’s appeal to voters will necessarily increase her popularity.
In fact, the opposite can also happen.
In 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating reached an all-time high of 66% and remained above 50% until the 2016 presidential election began in earnest.
Those are better than Harris’ numbers today.
By September 2018, Clinton’s approval rating was at 36%. Even among Democrats, Clinton’s approval rating dropped 10 points between the start of the campaign and the election.
What would happen if Harris were subjected to relentless, daily attacks from a large and well-funded opposition party?
Most voters don’t know much about Harris’ record, while Trump’s downsides are already priced into the polls.
What will Harris say about the former president that Biden hasn’t said?
Once you accuse someone of being Hitler, there is little room for further rhetoric.
And what about Harris’ justification for running for president? Would she be forced to run on Biden’s record?
Certainly, a change would shift coverage away from Biden’s vulnerability.
But before the media begins writing a revisionist history of the past four years, it should be remembered that the administration’s policies were unpopular. in front Everyone acknowledged the president’s deteriorating mental health.
Before the debate, Biden was lagging behind Trump on the issues that matter most to voters.
According to Gallup, immigration is the most important non-economic issue for voters.
The only memorable task Biden gave Harris was to halt the crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border.
She was appointed to this position in March 2021.
By May 2022, the U.S. had a record high of more than 241,000 monthly encounters at the border.
By December 2023, that number will exceed 250,000.
Appearing on “The View” in 2019, Harris argued that illegal immigration should be a “civil enforcement issue” rather than a criminal issue.
So maybe she was just keeping her promise.
There is speculation that Harris may try to distance herself from Biden.
But remember that Biden’s victory over weaker candidates in the 2020 Democratic primaries was largely due to his perception of moderation and decency.
How will a far-left presidential candidate who hasn’t even completed his first term as a senator help Democrats in battleground states?
Outside Democrats might be more effective at recalibrating the debate: Names like Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro and Gavin Newsom have been mentioned.
But are Democrats really going to exclude not only the president, but also the first ever Black/South Asian/female vice president? It seems dangerous.
Certainly, Barack Obama proved that you can win the presidency without any real-world track record.
But Harris has never demonstrated the political instincts that would convince anyone that she would be a strong national candidate.
In fact, there is little evidence that independents or Democrats like Harris.
Recall that her primary campaign was mired in bickering and she received little support from her own party.
Even as vice president, she is struggling to carry out her duties.
A candidate who believes pro-Hamas protesters are “exhibiting truly human emotions” or promotes the “modern-day lynching” Jussie Smollett hoax even after an investigation has been launched probably has a rich history of making stupid statements.
But as I said, who knows: Maybe voters will like her confusing tautologies and obnoxious personality.
After all, in many ways, Harris is already running for president.
It’s not inconceivable that Biden is mentally or physically incapacitated or for some other reason unable to complete a second term.
And every single Democrat, the entire White House press corps, and everyone paying attention already knew this before his disastrous performance in the presidential debate.
Biden’s remaining in the race won’t make him any sharper or any less vulnerable. Benjamin Button is a fictional character.
We also know that Americans sometimes vote for candidates with little consistency.
So in the long run, becoming Harris’ running mate may be the best strategy for her to become president.
David Harsanyi is a senior editor at The Federalist. Follow him on Twitter @davidharsanyi
