A poll released Thursday showed President Biden leading former President Trump in New York, but the lead is only single digits in the largely Democratic state.
According to an Emerson College Poll/The Hill/PIX11 poll, Biden is leading Trump 48 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. When undecided voters are taken into account, the incumbent’s lead widens to 10 points, 55 percent to 45 percent.
Biden holds a single-digit lead over Trump when other longshot candidates like independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in the survey: Biden at 44 percent, Trump at 38 percent.
These numbers are noteworthy because New York state is overwhelmingly Democratic, and it voted for Biden over Trump by a wide margin in 2020, 61 percent to 38 percent.
But Republicans are getting a boost: The poll found that just 39% of New Yorkers surveyed approved of the job Biden is doing, with Gov. Kathy Hockle (D) receiving an even lower approval rating, at 34%.
When respondents were asked what the most important issues facing New York are, the main issues New Yorkers cited are also ones that Republicans have championed: 34% said the economy, 16% said immigration, and 13% said crime. Twelve percent cited housing affordability.
“Exit polls show that New York’s traditionally Democratic independent voters have now switched to supporting Trump by a 10-point margin, 43% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Poll, said in a press release.
The poll also found that a majority of New Yorkers believe Trump is guilty of some or all of the charges in his criminal trial: 46% said they believe he is guilty of all the charges, 34% said they believe he is innocent of all the charges, and 20% said they believe he is guilty only of some of the charges.
But Kimball noted there’s a clear political breakdown within those numbers.
“Seventy-one percent of Democrats will find Trump guilty on all charges, while 71% of Republicans will find him not guilty. Independents are split, with 37% saying he is not guilty, 35% saying he is guilty on all charges, and 29% saying he is guilty on some but not all charges,” Kimball explained. “Overall, 84% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 46% of Republicans expect the jury to find Trump guilty on some or all charges.”
Biden’s popularity is dwindling, with polls showing him trailing in many battleground states and the race closer than expected in Democratic states such as New York.
With more than five months until the election, polls are pointing to warning signs for Biden and Democrats in what is again expected to be a closely contested election.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 poll was conducted May 28-29 and surveyed 1,000 New York voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
