Now that both parties have selected their presumptive candidates, the 2024 presidential campaign begins in earnest. Given the number of international crises and dangers that exist, foreign policy should be at the top of the list of important topics for discussion.
But that won’t happen unless a crisis like Pearl Harbor occurs. case If history is just the beginning.
In any case, the Democratic Party explosion Donald Trump claimed he might. Abandon NATO and Ukraine appease Russia and impose inconvenience customs duty, mainly about China and Europe.How will he deal with Iran-Iranian war? Gaza It may involve spontaneous rather than thought-through reactions. Worse, Trump will abandon traditional American international leadership and retreat into the international community. america firstMAGA Looks like Potemkin Sanctuary.
republican party President Joe Biden’s foreign policy will be similarly tough starting with a disastrous 2021 withdrawI’m from Afghanistan.Biden will be eviscerated for his inconsistency and lack of honesty. Iran and their proxies, particularly the Houthi threat to block Red Sea passage.His aid to Ukraine will be considered excessive and there is no way out. strategy.and his Fight The meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be another example of Biden’s policy of directing anger.
But don’t get me wrong. These soundbites and talking points are just that, and they don’t take into account the most important factors and forces that will shape U.S. foreign policy post-election. Regardless of who wins, if this Congress fails to pass or delays approving military aid to Ukraine, the following conditions will apply: IntolerableAs a result, there are no good options for the next president.
The biggest determining factor will be who controls both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue in January 2025. Should one party score a hat trick and win the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, the far left or right will influence policy considerations at home and abroad. That’s not good either way.
If one party only wins the White House but loses both houses of Congress, the dysfunction will be permanent until 2028, barring any unforeseen events. If one party wins the White House and the Senate, at least some business, such as moving up confirmation, will be possible. . If one party wins the presidency and only the House of Representatives, deadlock is inevitable.
The bottom line is that the outcome will not be good for American governance.
If the Democratic Party wins, foreign policy will change. Eyeball It will rebuild the middle class. Its purpose is as barren as the Gobi Desert. If the Republicans win, right-wing extremist The international withdrawal of the United States could accelerate, with dire consequences.
Despite this bleak outlook, with less than eight months until the election, predictions about future foreign policy are equally unhelpful. king canute He explained his powerlessness by ordering the sea to be drawn. And, of course, a lot will depend on the character, judgment and character of the next president.
It is impossible to guess how Trump’s mood will affect foreign policy if he wins.Trump was the ultimate flip flopper From my first day as a Democrat.
he “fell in love” and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, whom he once mocked.little rocket man” he said, puzzling over the unusual meeting with the leader. One person got whiplash after watching him declare NATO. abolition after that took credit for It has forced the alliance to increase defense spending, declaring that Russia will do “whatever it takes” to NATO countries that do not meet their spending targets.Formerly opposed to Chinese rule tick tockhe says there is currently no need for a change in ownership.
President Trump has declared himself to be very pro-military.And he phone He named the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff a “traitor.” He commemorated the American soldiers who died in battle by saying,Losers.” During the Vietnam War, while ironically claiming physical disqualification from the Army five times.and he was fired Former Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was considered a loser because he was a prisoner of war in that war.
Mr. Biden has not seriously reevaluated his foreign policy to correct weaknesses and failures. He also has not said what he plans to do internationally if he is re-elected. He has to explain why he didn’t do that.
Foreign policy is not the only or most important issue facing Americans. Yet both candidates refuse to objectively assess the international challenges, threats, and dangers facing this country or to propose effective responses or policies. Instead, soundbites and talking points continue to replace critical thinking. Voters beware.
Dr. Harlan Ullman He is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and the primary author of the “Shock and Awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Pooming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at General, is available for purchase on Amazon. You can reach him on Twitter @harlankullman.
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