As NATO allies come together, Washington in JulyUkraine will be at the top of the agenda: At last year’s Vilnius summit, the alliance pledged to push for Ukraine’s membership but no progress was made.If allies agree and conditions are met“The issue of NATO’s long-term relationship with Ukraine remains the most pressing issue the allies must address.”
The Biden administration said this year’s summit will beA bridge to membership” But details are scarce. President Biden should not only deliver on that promise, but also lead the alliance in defining a clear, concrete path for Ukraine to join NATO.
Several proposals have emerged that define the steps NATO should take to ensure Ukraine’s future as an ally.Recent ReportsThe Rasmussen-Yermak International Task Force report outlines what a clear and certain path to NATO membership for Ukraine would look like. In addition to an invitation to “accession negotiations” prior to a formal invitation to join the alliance, the report recommends creating an international agreement that sets a clear timeframe for Ukraine’s accession to NATO and consolidates a series of bilateral security arrangements between Ukraine and its partners.
With the Washington summit taking a clear step toward putting Ukraine on the path to NATO membership, the United States and its NATO allies have a strong and undeniable stake in Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield. By beginning to shift the center of international support from Washington to Brussels, such a decision would help guarantee support from Ukraine’s partners in NATO, regardless of the policy emanating from Washington.
This shift will be all the more important as the future of U.S. support for Ukraine hinges on the outcome of this year’s U.S. presidential election. In responding to full-scale Russian aggression, President Biden has effectively rallied historic levels of international support for Ukraine and maintained that support, seemingly against all odds, through two years of domestic controversy and global crisis. That record will be held up not just as a campaign topic but as a central element of Biden’s foreign policy legacy.
However, US presidential elections are fundamentally uncertain and unpredictable, and President Biden should be prepared to defend his legacy if he loses reelection.
Former President Donald Trump’s comments about Ukraine have raised questions about whether he will continue substantial U.S. support for Ukraine. He said Ukraine’s survival is important. He also spoke to the United States, Ending the War “24 hours” False accusations European countries have not done enough to help Ukraine, and with a NATO summit coming up shortly before the Republican National Convention, worries about this year’s presidential elections are sure to weigh heavily on the minds of leaders in attendance.
This summer’s NATO summit may be Biden’s final chance to institutionalize international support for Ukraine and ensure that the assistance of the past two years continues in the long term.
Biden has never been one to put politics over policy, but this year’s NATO summit gives him a chance to win on both counts. President Biden has already campaigned on the differences between his vision for foreign policy and that of President Trump. This message may be wasted if there is no consensus at this year’s NATO summit. A contentious summit may leave voters wondering whether President Trump’s foreign policy is so different after all. But clear outcomes on the most high-profile and important issues addressed at the summit could create the very contrast Biden is trying to draw.
Most NATO allies appear unwilling to block Ukraine’s clear path to NATO membership. Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoganPresident Kennedy, one of the last leaders to support Sweden’s membership in NATO, supported Ukraine’s application for membership. France, Canada, England Kiev and all its other partners have security agreements. German leaders I am told I have anxietyBut strong U.S. leadership could make a big difference in forging an agreement.
Vladimir Putin believes democracy is fundamentally fickle, and his strategy in Ukraine and around the world depends on that belief. At this year’s NATO summit, President Biden has a chance to prove Vladimir Putin wrong. By clearly defining Ukraine’s long-term future in NATO and institutionalizing long-term support for Ukraine’s struggle against current and future Russian aggression, this year’s summit can demonstrate that NATO’s commitment to Ukraine can withstand the most contested elections.
Benton Koblentz is a member of the Truman National Security Project and an MPA candidate at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs.
