A poll released Wednesday of voters and prospective voters in key battleground states found that President Biden and former President Trump would receive an equal number of popular votes in Wisconsin in the 2024 general election.
of Marquette Law School PollIn the survey, conducted June 12-20, Wisconsin voters asked to choose one candidate each voted 50 percent for Biden and 50 percent for Trump, and voters responded similarly, with 51 percent voting for Biden and 49 percent voting for Trump.
When presented with a third option, “undecided,” registered voters are still evenly split between the two candidates, with 44 percent each and 12 percent saying they’re “still undecided.” Biden is supported by just 47 percent of voters, slightly more than Trump’s 44 percent, and 9 percent are “undecided.” But the results are within the poll’s margin of error.
These results point to potential weaknesses for Trump and opportunities for Biden.
Among registered voters, Biden’s approval rating has remained at 44% in three polls conducted this year, while Trump’s approval rating has fallen 3 percentage points from 47% in April 2024. “Undecided” votes among registered voters have also increased 4 percentage points from 8% in April.
Among likely voters, Biden’s approval rating increased 2 percentage points from 45% in April, while Trump’s approval rating dropped 4 percentage points from 48% in April. The number of “undecided” voters increased from 6% in April 2024 to 9% in June 2024.
Biden hasn’t performed as well in hypothetical polls that include third-party and independent candidates, but the latest polls suggest those candidates pose more of a threat to Biden’s reelection chances than Trump.
Wisconsin voters, when asked to choose between multiple candidates including Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West and Chase Oliver, tend to support Trump.
Among registered voters with those choices, Trump received 43 percent, Biden 40 percent, Kennedy 8 percent, West 4 percent, and Stein and Oliver 2 percent each.
Among those planning to vote, Trump received 44 percent, Biden 42 percent, Kennedy 7 percent, West 3 percent, Stein 2 percent and Oliver 1 percent.
In a race with multiple candidates, Trump’s slight lead over Biden has remained steady since January, but Kennedy’s support has fallen significantly.
Among registered voters, Kennedy’s approval rating has fallen from 16% in January to 13% in April to 8% in June, and among likely voters, his approval rating has fallen from 13% in January to 12% in April to 7% in June.
The Wisconsin Decision Desk polling average shows Biden and Trump nearly evenly matched in head-to-head races, with Biden leading by 0.2 percentage points. The Decision Desk polling average of a hypothetical three-way race in Wisconsin shows Biden slightly ahead with 42 percent, followed by Trump with 40.6 percent and Kennedy with 7.7 percent.
The Wisconsin poll included 871 eligible voters and had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points. Among 784 likely voters, the margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
