Biden’s cash advantage may be meaningless

If Biden’s presidential fortunes plummet, his huge financial advantage could become irrelevant.

Biden’s low approval ratings are the result of his larger problems, but they may also be the cause of another problem: the expansion of 2024 battleground states, which means the Biden campaign now needs money that it could be spending in key swing states to consolidate support in states it assumed were safe to carry.

If so, a spending strategy to make a final push at the end of the race may not be realistic.

Biden has a lot of money. advantage about $100 million. in marchThe Biden campaign has spent just over $29 million, nearly five times the $6.3 million it spent in February and far more than the Trump campaign has spent so far. Campaign $3.6 million (legal costs). AprilMeanwhile, the Biden campaign spent slightly less, $25 million, nearly four times as much as the Trump campaign.

Biden won six states in the 2020 election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. Poll AverageBiden is currently trailing in each state — overall, he’s trailing by 3 points in these battleground states, 44.6% to 47.6% — and by ultimately directing all of his big money advantage toward these states, Biden could theoretically hold onto them and the presidency.

The problem for Biden is that his big spending advantage hasn’t helped so far: Even after two months of big spending and Trump being embroiled in an obscene hush-money trial in New York, Biden is still lagging behind Trump nationally. Two-way election voting and Five-way competition vote.

To make matters worse, Democrats may not have the spare cash to spend in the six battleground states.

Biden’s low approval ratings aren’t just a general issue. They have specific implications: The 2024 battleground states look bigger than expected right now. In 2020In addition to the six battleground states where Biden won the 2020 presidential election by just a combined total of 311,000 votes, he also won five states by margins of less than 11 percentage points: New Mexico (10.5 points), Virginia (10.1 points), Maine (9.1 points), New Hampshire (7.3 points), and Minnesota (7.1 points).

Recent Minnesota Poll Biden’s lead is just two points (44 percent to 42 percent). Biden’s support is declining in other blue states as well. Polls show Biden leading by just 9 points in New York (won by 23.2 points in 2020) and New Jersey by 7 points (won by 15.8 points in 2020). This raises the question of where Biden stands in the other second-tier battleground states in 2020 that aren’t regularly polled: New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine.

Biden may not have to worry about New York or New Jersey, but that, along with Minnesota and other secondary battleground states he will have to worry about in the 2020 presidential election, represents a growing battleground. And where the Biden campaign is worried, money will have to follow. After all, the huge cash advantage Biden had to put into six states will likely have to be spread across twice as many, or even more.

Add to the expanding battleground Trump’s campaigning abilities and Biden’s campaigning responsibilities.

In politics, the ability to attract crowds and press is known as “earned media.” Trump is an earned media machine. His recent New Jersey RallyThe rally, which reportedly drew 100,000 people, was just one example. Trump can draw crowds and cameras anywhere, even in states that are likely to be disadvantageous to him in the presidential election. This ability also means he doesn’t need to spend campaign funds to get his message across.

In contrast, Biden In his own wordsHis latest work shows him becoming a “gaffe machine” in front of the crowd and the cameras. Came to Detroit“When I was vice president, things were pretty bad with the pandemic, and Barack said to me, ‘I want you to go to Detroit and help make this situation better,'” he said.

Biden seems free to retract these statements at any time and at any place, and the liability he incurs is that a single comment can reverse the role that millions of dollars in campaign advertising have played for him.

Just as the playing field is not level when it comes to campaign finances, the playing field is not level when it comes to campaigning itself.

Incumbency and funding should be an overwhelming advantage, first and foremost. Help with the second production And the combination of the two guarantees reelection: there’s a reason why only three elected presidents since 1916 have lost reelection (Hoover, Carter, and HW Bush).

But Biden’s incumbency is actually weakening his reelection efforts, as evidenced by his low approval ratings, which could negate his financial advantage as the 2024 battleground expands.

J.T. Young served as a professional staff member in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, worked for the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.