Biden’s Democratic challengers seek to beat expectations in New Hampshire

President Biden's Democratic primary challengers are hoping for a symbolic victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday, looking for long-term momentum for the nomination.

Challengers Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) have been focused on campaigning in the state for months, with Biden not officially on the ballot. He is likely to have the best chance of winning in the primary.

But Democratic strategists are questioning the idea that it matters much for either candidate to perform well, even if the grassroots write-in campaign supporting Biden doesn't win as expected.

“I don't think it really means anything. And frankly, I don't even know what exceeding expectations is for them, but whatever it is, what do you do with it?” '' said Jim Demers, a Democratic strategist in New Hampshire. “Because the process that's going to happen, most of the names that you're going to hear, there's no organization in any of the states going forward.”

New Hampshire's Democratic primary will be an unprecedented battle. More than a dozen candidates, led by Williamson and Phillips, are scheduled to appear on the Democratic ballot in the state, but Biden will not be participating due to a change in the primary election schedule.

For years, Iowa and New Hampshire were the first states to vote in both parties' nominating processes, but Biden has asked the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to change the order, making South Carolina first. Ta. He said the measure would allow more voters of color to have more influence in choosing candidates than the overwhelmingly white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The DNC follows Biden's recommendation and puts South Carolina first and New Hampshire second along with Nevada, but the Granite State, which has a law that puts primaries first, refuses to abide by the new schedule. did.

As a result, Mr. Biden decided not to run in the New Hampshire primary in accordance with DNC rules, and importantly, the DNC decided not to award delegates to the state. In other words, it will not directly affect the calculation of getting the nomination. .

But even though Biden has not campaigned in the state at all, his supporters have launched an intensive write-in campaign to help the incumbent win the state anyway.

“The fate of our democracy itself will depend on the 2024 election,” it said. Website for writing work. “That starts with endorsing Joe Biden in the nation’s first 2024 primary on January 23rd in New Hampshire.”

Meanwhile, Phillips and Williamson have been pursuing a long-term campaign against Biden, focusing on New Hampshire, and have been visiting the state regularly for months.

Both challengers hope to further their efforts by making impressive showings to deny Biden's victory in the state, or at least narrow the margin of victory.

Mr. Phillips pointed out that: American Research Group poll results In New Hampshire, 32% said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday that their rankings are “going up every week.” But some polls show him trailing Biden's write-in efforts by at least 45 points, with his approval rating averaging just over 10%. RealClearPolitics voting average.

Mr. Williamson's polls were mostly in the single digits. The Hill has reached out to Phillips and Williamson's campaigns for comment.

Phillips told CNN's Jake Tapper in an interview on Monday that he expected Biden to “show weakness” in New Hampshire and that his campaign is doing better than polls show. He said there was. He said he would consider it a “great accomplishment” if he could get into the 20s on Tuesday.

“Just 10 weeks ago, Jake, no one here knew my name. I was at zero percent, but if I was at 20 something percent, I think that would be great,” Phillips said. . “But what's really important here is to demonstrate frankly that good Joe Biden is unelectable.”

Democratic strategists were hesitant to predict Tuesday's race given the unusual nature of the primary.

“I don't think it's possible to put a number on it because this is so unusual,” said Demers, a Democratic strategist in New Hampshire.

He noted that New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan does not expect large turnout in the Democratic primary. The Republican primary is expected to be higher than this. It was supported by more than 230,000 voters. He also said it's difficult to get voters to write in candidates rather than just choose the names already on the ballot.

“I don't really want to even speculate because we don't have anything to measure it against,” Demers said.

Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said he doesn't think “anyone has any idea” what kind of outcome to expect. However, he said he did not expect the results to be interpreted in any significant way regarding Biden's re-election bid.

Trippi said even if Phillips receives a significant number of votes, the Minnesota congressman will face more challenges by the time the South Carolina primary is held on Feb. 3.

“[He will] “It's about actually participating in a primary and knowing what it's like to actually have to participate in a primary,” Trippi said, adding that challenging a sitting president is “a fool's errand from the get-go.” claimed that it was.

In the modern era of primary elections, an incumbent has never lost a primary challenger for the party's nomination. One of the most successful efforts by a primary challenger came in 1968, when he was then a senator. Eugene McCarthy (D-Minnesota) nearly defeated incumbent President Lyndon Johnson in the New Hampshire primary.

Mr. Johnson also did not officially participate in the primary, being only a write-in candidate, but shortly thereafter decided not to seek another term. McCarthy ultimately lost the nomination.

The primary election comes as polls show that Biden's overall approval ratings remain low and many people do not want him to be re-elected. But Democratic lawmakers who support Mr. Biden said New Hampshire should not be seen as a measure of backlash against Mr. Biden, given the details of this year's primaries.

Democratic strategist Daniel Fee said he doesn't think the outcome matters, especially since Biden is not campaigning in the state or on the ballot. .

“If the president and vice president don't campaign, there won't be a significant mass protest vote,” he said.

Mr. Fee said Mr. Biden's opponents may try to set a standard in the race that would allow them to declare victory regardless of the final result, but that would have limited meaning.

Democratic strategist Anjuan Seawright said that if Biden underperforms in New Hampshire, “the most committed voting bloc in the country” made up of black voters who support him in South Carolina will turn Biden away. He said he would support it.

Biden struggled in the polls heading into South Carolina in the 2020 election after finishing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. But he turned his candidacy around in the Palmetto State and won the nomination after a landslide victory.

Seawright said New Hampshire's results will be the talk of insider politics, but South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan “give us a real snapshot” of where Democratic primary voters stand. He said it would be.

But he said success in New Hampshire helps signal the need for Democrats to unite around Biden as they prepare to take on former President Trump, the likely Republican nominee in November. He said it was possible.

“I think in this case it sends a message that it is urgently important that we come together as a party and put aside all our differences, because the differences that we have with each other “Because it doesn't compare to the various disagreements we have with people on the other side of the aisle,” he said.