President Biden is running out of time to achieve his goal of implementing a mega deal to end the war between Israel and Hamas and rebuild the Middle East on a footing of peace.
The administration is first focusing its efforts on getting Hamas to agree to a three-phase ceasefire that would halt fighting in the Gaza Strip for at least six weeks.
But a counterproposal by Hamas has led to weeks of back-and-forth, testing the hopes and patience of mediators and raising questions about what Plan B might be.
“I don’t know how many more days we have in this framework where we can say, ‘Well, there’s still hope,'” Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said during a roundtable with reporters hosted by the Christian Science Monitor on Tuesday.
Biden is seeking to apply international pressure on Hamas, with the backing of the Israeli government, the approval of the UN Security Council and the support of G7 countries and Israel. Arab and Gulf countries Based on the proposal presented on May 31st.
The first phase of the proposal includes a temporary ceasefire in which Hamas would release a batch of 120 Israelis abducted from Israel on October 7, while Israel would commit to releasing Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons. Supporters of a ceasefire say it is essential to increase humanitarian assistance to Palestinians and ease the suffering caused by displacement, hunger and urgently needed medical care.
Families of Israeli hostages held by Hamas have supported President Biden’s ceasefire proposal. Andrei Kozlov, one of four Israelis rescued from Hamas captivity in a daring and deadly operation in early June, called for a ceasefire to ensure the release of the remaining hostages.
“For the hostages remaining in Gaza, the only decision is a deal between Israel and Hamas,” he said. Video message released last week.
Warner blamed Yahya Sinwar, a Hamas leader hiding out in Gaza, for the attacks, saying Sinwar was known as a ruthless and calculating leader. Reports say He considered the tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths in the war a “necessary sacrifice.”
“He’s the type of leader who supports the Palestinian cause but doesn’t really care how many Palestinians die in this conflict,” Warner said.
Biden’s priority plan is to use the first weeks of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to negotiate a permanent end to the war, establish a new governing authority in Gaza and chart a path to a Palestinian state. These commitments would allow Saudi Arabia to establish ties with Israel as part of a broader security grouping to counter Iran.
Warner said efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia “absolutely” depend on reaching a cease-fire first.
Barbara Leaf, undersecretary for state for Near Eastern affairs, described Sinwar as a “psychotic” and a “savior”, but said mediators were in “intensive discussions” to bridge the gap between changes made to Hamas’ proposed ceasefire plan.
“Ultimately, I believe this proposal represents the best path forward to ending the current conflict and it offers many possibilities and ultimately the prospect of a complete end to the conflict,” she said at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Middle East issues on Tuesday.
“Reality intrudes.”
Sinwal’s stubbornness is just one challenge to the Biden administration’s grand plans.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been blamed by some Democrats in Congress for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, blasted the Biden administration’s decision to withhold U.S. arms and munitions in a video call calling it “unthinkable.”
Biden administration officials denied Netanyahu’s comments. The president has suspended shipments of heavy bombs to Israel, but the incident highlighted growing tensions between U.S. and Israeli leaders over the course of the war.
Netanyahu’s critics have accused him of prioritizing military operations against Hamas over diplomacy, and U.S. and Israeli officials have also criticized him for not discussing what authority could govern Gaza to replace Israeli military control.
“It is extraordinary that with weeks, maybe a month or two, until the end of formal military operations, there is no viable plan from the Israeli government for what happens next,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee that oversees the Middle East, said in pressing Leaf about the administration’s engagement with Israel.
“The planning on the part of the Israeli government is inadequate, to say the least,” Leaf responded.
Netanyahu has denied any talk of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority reasserting sovereignty over Gaza and has generally rejected the idea of an independent Palestinian state linking the two territories.
Still, Netanyahu has at times signaled he would accept some civilian sovereignty over the Palestinians in Gaza, and has spoken about Israel maintaining freedom of military movement to deal with security threats, but has also floated the idea of Arab countries assuming some security responsibility in the strip.
“The regime has no magic bullet,” Reif said in response to criticism that Arab and Gulf countries were unlikely to step up their commitment to stabilise the situation in Palestine.
“These are issues that go to the heart of politics for governments, for Palestinians and for Israelis alike. But I think the reality has the power to motivate even those who cannot imagine such concepts. [Palestinian Authority] “When you go back to Gaza, reality gets in the way,” she said.
Leaf said he would likely head to the Middle East this weekend to continue discussions with Israel, Arab and Gulf countries about scenarios for the next day.
“There’s going to need to be a political alternative, and that’s the process in which we’re putting these concepts together,” she said.
Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the U.S. is also in discussions to engage regional partners in “next-day” scenarios.
“We have had individual and collective discussions with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt and Qatar and they have expressed an interest in participating, including on governance issues, economic issues and other issues,” he told reporters last week.
“There are many gaps yet to be filled and there are many applicants who are willing to come forward if the conditions are met, if there is genuine peace in the region and if there is a determination to move forward towards two states,” he said.
Saudi Arabia is a key ally on the path to peace
Biden has cultivated Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a key ally in advancing the prospects for a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, provided a ceasefire is first implemented.
The president long ago abandoned a campaign pledge to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state and, like Democratic and Republican lawmakers, sees his closer ties with Riyadh as part of a larger effort to counter Iran and reduce Chinese and Russian influence in the region.
Regional Military Cooperation The military exercise, conducted in response to an Iranian missile attack on Israel in April, was a real-world demonstration of the combined defensive capabilities of the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other partners.
The Saudi crown prince is committed to signing a mutual defense treaty with the United States and helping build a civilian nuclear program. The deal is contingent on Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, which the crown prince has said can only be achieved if Israel is willing to agree to recognize a Palestinian state.
“In a meeting with MBS [Prince Mohammed]”I think that if a defense alliance with the United States were to happen, we had somebody who was ready to make the decision to stop trying to pit both sides against the centrists. I think that’s in the best interest of the United States,” Warner said.
All or nothing
Biden administration officials and allies in Congress have said all parts of the mega deal – the ceasefire, the plan for the next day, the path to Palestinian statehood and the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia – must either move together or not at all.
Hamas has not publicly announced any changes to the ceasefire plan presented by Biden on May 31, but the disagreement appears to relate to Hamas’ demand that Israel commit to a complete end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli troops. Netanyahu has said a complete end to the war can only be achieved through negotiations, the so-called second phase of Biden’s three-phase agreement.
Warner questioned Sinwal’s willingness to negotiate but expressed optimism based on wartime experience that a ceasefire agreement could be reached, but warned that talks could quickly fall apart.
He explained that Hamas and Israel had come close to reaching an agreement in early May but that talks collapsed after a Hamas rocket attack killed three Israeli soldiers.
“We’ve come close many times before, and this was just a flash in the news, but I think it was probably the closest we came when Israel was leaning and Hamas was ready, and then coincidentally there was a random attack that left three IDF soldiers dead,” he said.
“The responsibility for the past few weeks lies with the Hamas leadership, particularly Sinwar,” he said.
