President Joe Biden’s flagship bill directs billions of dollars to battleground states, but experts aren’t convinced the money will make a big difference in November’s election.
The Bipartisan Infrastructure Act of 2021, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Control Act (IRA) cumulatively directed billions of dollars to battleground states during Biden’s first term. The Biden camp is running Advertisements in battleground states tout funds and projects generated by Biden’s legislative policies, but state and national experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania have decided on benefits. He said it was unlikely that this would be a factor.
“I don’t think most voters are aware of these projects, mainly because they are little more than ribbon cuttings and plans at this point. The administration has not spent even a fraction of the money appropriated. Mike McKenna, a Republican political consultant with extensive energy experience, told DCNF. “More importantly, these projects affect only a small portion of the population: future employees and investors. Inflation in energy, food, housing, and consumer goods affects almost everyone. ” (Related: Democrats may have shot themselves in the foot – in a must-win state)
ABC’s Jon Karl says Trump’s lead in battleground states is because voters are ‘not paying attention’https://t.co/5mairtxI2a
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) November 5, 2023
The three bills would inject $15.4 billion in public funds into Arizona’s green energy, infrastructure and semiconductor chip manufacturing. according to Visit Invest.gov, a government website that tracks the administration’s policies. The administration also says its legislative policies have attracted $121 billion in private sector investment to the state.
In Pennsylvania, Biden’s landmark bill allocated $16.7 billion in public funds to green energy, infrastructure and semiconductor efforts, according to Invest.gov. In Michigan, three laws funnel his $12.5 billion into similar efforts to the state.
The Biden administration is also touting a total of $32 billion in private investments in green energy, manufacturing, semiconductor production and more in both Rust Belt states, according to Invest.gov. (Related: ‘Biggest mistake of my life’: 2020 Biden voters explain why they’ll support Trump in 2024)
Trump beats Biden in key battleground states, gains support among Black, Hispanic voters: pollhttps://t.co/m95t5Eyfy0
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) May 13, 2024
pennsylvania
Former President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but Biden reversed it during the 2020 cycle. State-by-state statistics will be crucial to which candidates hope to win in 2024, and RealClearPolitics polling averages indicates Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points.
Pennsylvania will also decide whether to re-elect incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in another key race in November.real clear politics vote Casey currently holds a 4.8% lead over Republican candidate Dave McCormick, according to the data.
The Biden administration’s decision in January to suspend approvals for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals could be a key factor in both elections. Pennsylvania produced more natural gas in 2022 than every state except Texas, and 20% of the U.S. natural gas produced that year came from the Keystone State. according to To the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“The problem for President Biden in Pennsylvania is that these bills won’t really create enough jobs, especially in the near term, to offset the losses from natural gas curtailment,” said John McHenry, a Republican polling analyst. I think that’s the case,” he says. A North Star Opinion Research representative told DCNF. “Even if voters know there may be future benefits, what they really know is that job losses will probably be a direct result of what we should call the ‘gas wars.’ And of course, the president is in trouble because any step back from his rhetoric on green energy would undermine his foundation.
McHenry and other experts previously told the DCNF that an LNG moratorium could ultimately cost Democrats the Senate and reduce industry jobs, citing Pennsylvania’s unique demographics. Considering this, he said, this policy could be a drag on Mr. Biden. tens of thousands Pennsylvanian. As of March, the economy was the top issue for more than 35% of Pennsylvania voters, followed by crime and immigration. according to According to a poll conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill.
michigan
Michigan, like Pennsylvania, supported Trump in 2016 and was won by Biden in 2020. RealClearPolitics polling data indicates Trump currently holds a narrow 0.8 percentage point lead in the head-to-head race.
Known as the heart of America’s auto industry, the state also has a unique connection to the administration’s climate change agenda, which includes a significant increase in the production and adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) over the next decade. include. The IRA and Infrastructure Act include subsidies aimed at facilitating the transition to EVs as well as the adoption of U.S. manufacturing and other green technologies.
The EV agenda influenced the 2023 United Auto Workers strike, as the union was concerned that many of its members could lose their jobs due to the future envisioned by Biden administration officials. . The union ended the strike after confirming that the transition to EVs would not put workers at a disadvantage.
Promoting EV and green energy investments in states with large populist-leaning blue-collar voters may be a counterproductive strategy, said Jason Cabell Roe, a Michigan-based Republican consultant. Biden and his campaign say they have few other options. .
“These bills and projects are central to any accomplishments he can make in his first term, so he has to lean into them, for better or for worse,” Roe told DCNF. .
Roe added that he believes immigration is also shaping up to be a deciding issue on the state’s ballot in November.
“I just did a poll two months ago in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, which is probably a decent microcosm of the state in many ways. Immigration was the biggest issue,” Roe told DCNF. told. “And, you know, a lot of that is just a cultural response to looking at what’s happening at the border. A lot of it is looking at what’s happening in the metropolitan areas. Michigan. We’re seeing reactions to the influx of illegal immigrants in places in our atmosphere, like Chicago, rather than in cities like Chicago.”
Adolph Mongo, a lifelong Michigander and expert on the state’s Democratic politics, was even more critical of the Biden campaign’s message on domestic issues, considering more pressing challenges facing ordinary people. He then said the message was “very weak.”
“That’s a very weak message. The administration has done some good things, but if I were a normal person in these states where real political junkies live, they would look at that and say, ‘ You know, there’s no way in the world I would do that.’Vote for Donald Trump,” Mongi told DCNF. “But if you live in a community like Detroit, for example, where you don’t have a real grocery store, or you go to the grocery store and the food costs double, the schools are in bad shape, and people are out of work. Cetera: That’s the problem. Ordinary people don’t care if the economy is great or whatever. ?”
Mongi doesn’t believe Biden is the right messenger, and Democrats could increase voter enthusiasm if former President Barack Obama campaigned more forcefully for Biden. he added.
arizona
Trump led Arizona in the 2016 election, but lost the state in 2020. Recent polling data from RealClearPolitics indicates Trump currently has a 5.2% lead.
Arizona is unique among swing states in that it is home to the best CHIPS law and also has a direct border with Mexico, where immigration issues can be more pronounced than in other areas. Compared to other issues, immigration “dominates” Arizona voters’ concerns. according to To the Arizona Future Center.
intel and TSMCtwo major high-tech companies have chosen to establish multibillion-dollar semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the state with help from the CHIPS Act.
But concerns about the economy and the border crisis are more likely to sway voters than new facilities, said Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based Republican strategist.
“I don’t know if there’s really any state that’s benefited more from the CHIPS Act than Arizona. Between TSMC and Intel, Arizona has really benefited greatly from some of President Biden’s economic policies.” Marson told DCNF. “When we talk about the economy, it’s not the economy that voters are focused on. They’re focused on gas prices, which have gone up to $4.50 a gallon here, and car purchases and home purchases. We also look at both interest rates…These are factors that affect you every day.”
“Immigration has long been a No. 1 or No. 2 issue in Arizona,” Merson continued. “And at this point, border policy is what can only be described as a complete failure. I think that’s what’s fueling President Trump’s popularity. I think it’s the economic issue and the border issue. Frankly. The only thing that will save Joe Biden in Arizona is abortion.”
The Biden campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
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