Bitcoin Bear Market Update
Jamie Coutts, the chief crypto analyst at RealVision, has shared insights suggesting that Bitcoin might be nearing the end of its bear market, with signs that the downward trend could be easing.
“I think we’re moving beyond the typical behaviors of a bear market,” Coutts mentioned during an interview with Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets. “Of course, the bear market isn’t over just yet, but it does seem like we’re getting closer to the latter half of the year.”
Coutts characterized Bitcoin’s current market situation as a “classic bear market,” noting that Bitcoin’s price sits at around $63,000, which is about 50% lower than its all-time high of $126,100 recorded in October 2025.
Interestingly, he pointed out that Bitcoin’s price volatility has decreased by roughly 50% when compared to the last market cycle, indicating that the present economic downturn might not be as harsh as previous bear markets.
Bitcoin has seen a 4.45% increase over the last month, according to market data.
However, Coutts emphasized that markets seldom mirror historical patterns precisely. “They have their own rhythm, and many trend indicators remain bearish at this point,” he stated.
On a more positive note, Coutts observed initial technical signals suggesting that the selling pressure may be beginning to dissipate.
“We’re noticing a bullish divergence in momentum over a longer timeframe. This could indicate a slowing down of negative momentum, but it doesn’t mean we’ve exited this bear market from a technical perspective,” he added.
While many in the market attribute Bitcoin’s struggles in the fourth quarter to strict global liquidity conditions, Coutts noted that deteriorating on-chain fundamentals are also a contributing factor.
“On-chain demand, which has been a consistent driver for price increases and is linked to global liquidity and business cycles, has also begun to weaken,” he explained.
Coutts Doubts Bitcoin’s $1 Million Prediction
When probed about the long-term prediction that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030, shared by Coinbase’s CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest’s CEO Cathie Wood, Coutts approached the topic with caution.
“The model I’ve been analyzing predicted about a million outcome by 2032 or 2033, mainly depending on how much money is printed in the meantime,” he said. “I’m more comfortable forecasting that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 in the next two to three years.” Beyond that timeline, he added, “it’s quite challenging to say.”
He also mentioned his curiosity about the potential implications of AI on the crypto landscape, noting that more wallets are being created for agents. “But what will they use to store their value? Will their decision-making mirror that of humans?” he pondered.
Regarding long-term risks to Bitcoin’s status, Coutts believes the community needs to proactively address the challenges posed by quantum computing by 2027.
“If there’s no significant movement on this front, it will increasingly be considered a network issue. Given that quantum technology threatens many areas, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature complicates matters. It could take five years for major protocol upgrades to be implemented,” he cautioned.
Coutts criticized Bitcoin developers for seemingly neglecting the threat quantum computing poses to the network.
