The cryptocurrency market appears to be struggling with its role. Recently, gold surged past $5,600 an ounce, while silver climbed over $121 an ounce. Meanwhile, Bitcoin isn’t faring well at all. This situation underscores a key reality: in times of macroeconomic uncertainty, investors typically gravitate toward traditional safe havens before considering cryptocurrencies.
All three of these assets are marketed as reliable stores of value and safeguards against inflation and government intervention. Yet, as Bitcoin’s value declines, gold and silver are both gaining significant traction, adding hundreds of billions in market value in mere days.
So, what’s going on? The escalating chances of a U.S. government shutdown, uncertainty from the Federal Reserve, and potential intervention in the Japanese yen are pushing investors to seek out assets that have proven reliable during crises over several decades.
In times of fear, Bitcoin’s 15 years of history doesn’t seem to matter much. The altcoin market is facing significant losses, with coins like Dogecoin and XRP also seeing substantial declines.
At present, Bitcoin is trading around $83,405, marking a 6.46% drop, which translates to a loss of $5,763 since the previous day. Prices have dropped below several support levels since reaching nearly $97,000 in January, and technical indicators suggest that the downward trend may not be over.
A concerning signal for Bitcoin is the “death cross” of its 50-day exponential moving average dropping below the 200-day EMA. This indicates a bearish outlook for the long term.
You might think of it this way: short-term averages reflect recent buying activity, while long-term averages show investor positions taken over months. When the short-term average sits below the long-term one, it’s a sign that recent buyers are struggling, which shifts the market into a distinctly bearish state. Historically, this pattern has foreshadowed significant downturns in Bitcoin value, like those witnessed in 2018 and 2022.
To dig a little deeper, it’s worth noting that an increase in death crosses could mean trouble ahead. The year 2026 might see a similar pattern emerge, following a cyclical shift from a bullish phase to a bearish one.
Currently, the 50-day EMA sits just below $88,000, acting as a resistance level that bulls have yet to break through. Bitcoin is trading well under both moving averages at the moment, presenting a significant barrier to any potential recovery.
The average directional index (ADX) is at 24, just shy of the 25 mark, which indicates a strong trend could be emerging. ADX measures the intensity of a trend, so if it climbs over 25, it would suggest that price movements reflect genuine market activity rather than mere fluctuations. As of December 24, the recent price correction seems to be losing momentum.
The uptick in volume during this downturn suggests we’re seeing serious sellers entering the market, rather than just low liquidity fluctuations. This is an important point to note.
At this point, if the $80,600 support level fails to hold, we might see the next major target at around $74,000, where Bitcoin previously found support. Should this level break down as well, we could end up facing a less likely and much harsher scenario at around $65,000, where the 200-day EMA offers long-term support.
For now, the prevailing trend is downward. Bulls will need to see a rise in the ADX and push the daily close above $88,000 to signal a shift in momentum. Until then, expect to see more negative headlines about how gold is outperforming Bitcoin.
- Resistance:
- $88,000 (50-day EMA, immediate)
- $92,000 (previous support level now resistance)
- $108,757 (Volume Profile Zone)
- Support:
- $83,381 (Volume Profile Zone)
- $80,601 (strong support)
- $74,000 (lowest price in April 2025)
