Bitcoin (BTC) should hit a new all-time high in 2024, but a new analysis suggests the halving will punish the bulls first.
In the latest market update released On February 2nd, trading suite DecenTrader predicted a classic “halving” BTC price trend.
DecenTrader: Bitcoin will ‘test investors’ resolve’ ahead of Q4 highs
DecenTrader believes Bitcoin will see about a month of sideways price movement before the market starts to react to the upcoming block subsidy halving.
CEO and co-founder Filbfilb summarized this year’s BTC price roadmap, telling readers to expect a surge in purchases about two months before the halving, currently estimated to be April 18th. Ta.
This will likely be followed by another “news-selling event” similar to the one surrounding the launch of the Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in January.
“There are approximately 75 days left until the Bitcoin halving, which is scheduled for around April 18, 2024. Making the simple assumption that there will be buying interest shortly before the halving, this is significant. We expect this to occur no later than six weeks before the halving, or around the second week of March,” Philbfilb wrote.
“This means Bitcoin will wander through a correction phase in about 30 days from now before finding the expected FOMO demand.”
Speculators’ hopes could see BTC/USD reach its current two-year high of $49,000 before a copycat sell-off in ETFs occurs.
But then the path is paved for price discovery before the end of 2024, a phenomenon seen during Bitcoin’s last halving in 2020.
“Bitcoin tends to get ahead of halving sell news, so keep that in mind,” Filbfilb continued.
“After the halving, Bitcoin took 220 to 240 days to reach a new all-time high. This will allow time for correction to update values and test investor resolve in the meantime.”
Bitcoin halving: Will it be no different this time?
The timing of BTC price movements over the coming months will make the first quarter difficult for traders to navigate.
Related: Bitcoin approaches 150 days in $5,000 BTC price trading range
As Cointelegraph reported, beyond Bitcoin-specific factors, macroeconomic and geopolitical hurdles are looming, causing disruption for broader risk assets.
These include vulnerabilities in the U.S. banking system, which Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, sees coming to a head in March.
Some believe that BTC/USD won’t reach new highs until the end of 2025.
For Filbfilb, there is little reason to be overly optimistic about how the coming weeks will go.
“What’s become clear is that many people are fooling themselves into thinking that Bitcoin will reach all-time highs ahead of the halving because ‘this time it’s different,'” he explained. .
“Personally, I expect it to be no different than what has been the case in the past. There is such an accurate picture of the market cycle that it seems unwise to expect it to break down (in your favor).
BTC/USD traded at just under $43,000 through the week’s close on February 4, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Cointelegraph Markets Pro. TradingView.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
