- Thanks in part to the flow of spot BTC ETFs in the US, BTC rose +68% in the first quarter of 2024.
- Krueger estimated that this flow could push BTC to $195,000 by the end of 2024.
Bitcoin [BTC] It posted an impressive performance in Q1 2024 thanks to flows from the new US spot BTC ETF (exchange traded fund).
Digital gold rose more than 68% in the first quarter, rising from $38,500 to $73,700. During the same period, total flows from spot ETFs reached $12 billion and total assets exceeded $59 billion. In total, BTC’s market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion.
Bitcoin Price Factors: Halving vs ETF Flow
Bitcoin maximalist and serial investor Fred Krueger used historical data to estimate that BTC could reach $195,000 by the end of 2024.
Krueger posted his analysis and hypothesis on X (formerly Twitter), naming the 2024 cycle. Says that;
“Our market cap is $70,000, $1.4 trillion.
Probably another $50 billion in inflows this year (ETFs and exchanges)
A multiplier of 50 equals $2.5 trillion.
This gives it a market cap of $3.9 trillion, or $195,000 for BTC.
I think that’s the basic situation this year. It might be higher. ”
kruger I felt stressed It states that the 2024 bull market cycle was primarily driven by ETF flows from traditional finance (TradFi).
“But the real story is Bitcoin ETFs. TradFi meets Bitcoin.”
However, he pointed out that BTC could grow to $500,000 in two years before experiencing a severe crash.
Krueger did not specify what would cause a crash if BTC reaches $500,000. However, due to the half-life event, he Price slump But it doesn’t necessarily cause a massive rally.
“I think the halving will pave the way for an upside as it lowers the amount released on a 4x appreciation.”
In other words, BTC maximalists believe that ETF flows are an important price driver compared to the supply shock caused by a halving event.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and retested the $68,000 area before regaining $69,000.
Cryptocurrency market analyst Rekt Capital said, claimed This move confirms the breakout after BTC hit a weekly candlestick close of $71.2K, surpassing the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69K.
