Simply put
- Bitcoin remains stable over the last 24 hours, currently trading at $111,100, as previous losses stabilize, according to Coingecko.
- Goldman Sachs anticipates the payroll report will indicate 60,000 jobs added, falling short of the 75,000 expected, with the unemployment rate likely rising to 4.3%.
- The market is largely optimistic about a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, though unexpected changes in wages and unemployment could shift this outlook.
Bitcoin seems to be treading water as traders await significant data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions later this month, particularly the US labor market numbers due on Friday.
The cryptocurrency’s price has barely shifted in the past day and appears to have regained some stability after early trading losses. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering just under $111,100, according to Coingecko.
Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the August non-farm payroll numbers, predicting an increase of only 60,000 jobs, much lower than the previously estimated 75,000. They also foresee the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021.
Looking ahead to the non-farm payroll report, MEXC Research’s chief analyst Shawn Young indicates that the market setup is expected to be “soft but stable,” with a solid report possibly backing a 25 basis point rate cut.
“Unless we see unexpectedly strong gains in jobs or wages, it seems reasonable to assume the Fed will continue easing,” he commented.
In a discussion about whether the market has already factored in the labor data coming out on Friday, Young suggested there’s still potential for significant movement.
“What remains uncertain is how things will develop after September,” he noted. “Traders are cautiously watching for any surprises in wages or unemployment that could shift expectations for future rate cuts.”
This year, Bitcoin has been tied closely to stock performance, with macroeconomic factors shaping future asset price expectations as traders brace for signs of a slowdown in US economic growth.
The Federal Reserve is grappling with the challenging task of balancing price stability while aiming for maximum employment, with core inflation lingering at 3.1%.
According to the August Challenger Report, U.S. employers announced 85,979 job cuts in August, which marks a 39% increase from July’s figure of 62,075. This represents the highest monthly total since 2020.
Friday’s expected “Goldilocks” report, which includes moderate improvements in employment and stable wages, is likely to benefit both stocks and cryptocurrency, which “rely on risk appetite,” as Young put it.
However, a negative surprise could trigger an initial risk-off sentiment due to concerns about growth, although a recovery might follow as markets adjust to changing rates.
“Conversely, a surprising uptick might drive yields higher, strengthen the dollar, and put short-term pressure on riskier assets,” he explained.
