Analysts Debate the End of the Four-Year Crypto Market Cycle
In recent months, many within the crypto sector have echoed a familiar thought: “The four-year crypto market cycle is over.” Advocates of the bull theory suggest that while this cycle might be finished, the Bitcoin bull market isn’t necessarily over; it could just be delayed, perhaps lasting until 2027.
Understanding the Shift in Market Cycle Dynamics
On the social media platform X, analysts supporting the bull theory have mentioned that the idea of a consistent four-year Bitcoin cycle is fading. They argue that the major price fluctuations seen over the last decade were not just driven by halving events but were also influenced by changes in global liquidity.
Interestingly, despite the recent economic challenges, stablecoins remain robustly liquid. This suggests that large investors are still active in the market, likely waiting for the right macroeconomic conditions to make their next moves.
In the U.S., Treasury policies are seen as a critical factor. While noteworthy share buybacks have occurred, analysts point out that the real story lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA), which is about $940 billion—almost $90 billion above the standard range. This surplus cash is expected to flow back into the financial system, potentially tightening funding conditions and boosting liquidity that usually attracts higher-risk investments.
Looking globally, the outlook appears even brighter. China has been adding liquidity for quite some time, and Japan has just introduced an economic stimulus package valued at around $135 billion, along with steps toward simplifying crypto regulations. In Canada, there are also signs of shifting monetary policies, paralleling the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent halt on quantitative tightening measures—historically a precursor to increasing liquidity.
Aligning Political and Financial Factors
According to analysts, Bitcoin and other risk assets tend to react more swiftly than conventional stocks when major nations implement expansionary monetary policies simultaneously. Moreover, there’s potential for policy tools—like the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) exemption from 2020 that allowed banks to more easily expand their balance sheets—to be reinstated, which could lead to heightened credit creation and overall market liquidity.
Political elements also play a role. For instance, President Trump has floated ideas for tax reforms, such as eliminating income taxes and distributing $2,000 in tariff dividends. Additionally, the prospect of a new Federal Reserve chair who favors liquidity support and is positive on cryptocurrencies could foster a more conducive environment for economic growth.
Historically, when the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI) has risen above 55, it has often foreshadowed an altcoin season. Bull theorists believe there’s a strong chance this could happen in 2026.
The combination of elevated stablecoin liquidity, Treasury cash injections, global quantitative easing, the U.S. suspension of QT, potential bank loan bailouts, and an overall pro-market shift expected in 2026, along with increased involvement from major corporations in the crypto space, paints a very different picture from the traditional four-year halving model.
Analysts conclude that if liquidity continues to expand simultaneously across the United States, Japan, China, Canada, and other key nations, it’s unlikely that Bitcoin will revert to a downward trend. Instead of a sharp spike followed by a prolonged downturn, the current conditions suggest a longer-term uptrend that could extend into 2026-2027.
