Bitcoin prices were largely unchanged in the 15 days leading up to its June 7 crash, near the lowest price ever recorded over an entire 15-day period in Bitcoin’s history.
According to Rafa Zagury, chief investment officer at Swan Bitcoin, the period from May 24 to June 7 was in the “bottom 6% of occurrences” for volatility.
“The horizontal blue line is the latest 15-day volatility reading of 23%. It certainly looks close to the lower bound,” Zagury explained in a June 7 post on X, noting that Bitcoin (BTC) had been “range-bound” for an extended period of time.
After a 15-day trading period, Bitcoin price traded within a 7% range, fluctuating between $66,936 and $71,656, before plummeting 3.33% to $69,264. according to To CoinMarketCap data.
The sharp drop comes after the U.S. Employment Situation Summary report announced stronger-than-expected job growth, suggesting the U.S. Federal Reserve may not cut inflation rates on June 11, a metric that analysts have been closely monitoring in their bitcoin price predictions lately.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,246.
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However, Zagury highlighted how Bitcoin’s price has performed in similar periods of low volatility or less, with the average return over the ensuing 30 days being 20.95%, with the lowest return falling a further 32.06% and the highest return being 218.40%.
The results are even more striking when looking at a 365 day period following a similar prior period of low volatility: the minimum return over this period is 55.59%, while the average return is 820.82%.
Zag reiterated that this is not an indication of the future, but simply that he believes “there is value in learning from the past.”
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This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment or trading involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making any decision.
