Simply put
- The average Bitcoin deposit amount on Binance has soared 34 times since the beginning of 2024, now averaging 21.7 BTC, suggesting that large holders are becoming active again.
- Analysts are suggesting this increase might be related to a “regime shift” influenced by macro events, including the U.S. military action in Venezuela, but they caution that this could be a readjustment rather than the start of a prolonged bull market.
- Forecasts indicate a volatile and range-bound first quarter of 2026, with stablecoin capital accumulating over $3 billion, while risks in the equity market may present challenges in the near term.
Bitcoin’s significant rise above $92,000 at the start of 2026, coupled with increased activity from large holders, indicates a change in market behavior. Analysts have mixed expectations, forecasting fluctuations in the upcoming quarter.
The leading cryptocurrency has risen by 6.3% this week and 1.7% over the past day, according to CoinGecko. Around $255 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, reflecting increased speculative activities as Bitcoin continues to climb.
This spike in deposits on Binance follows a flat December and represents a shift in currency flow patterns. The average Bitcoin deposit size reached 21.7 BTC per transaction by December 2025, a massive leap from an average of 0.86 BTC in early January 2024, based on on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant.
“The significant rise in average Bitcoin inflows to Binance suggests that major holders are re-entering the market, signaling potential speculation rather than mere retail interest,” commented Wenny Kai, COO of Shin Futures.
Geopolitical turmoil creates speculation
This new wave of speculation is happening against the backdrop of notable global events, including the U.S. military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. This situation has introduced a “strategic framework” into the market, as noted by Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital.
Analysts point to the possibility of a “regime shift,” particularly discussing Venezuela’s potential Bitcoin reserves and how plummeting oil prices may be affecting cryptocurrencies in relation to broader risk assets.
However, some experts view these geopolitical changes as creating uncertainty and advise caution.
“While the Venezuelan situation hasn’t directly affected crypto prices, it’s certainly unsettled the geopolitical landscape,” mentioned Derek Lim from Caladan. He expressed concern that the ripple effects might cause significant market disturbances.
Despite this uncertainty, analysts generally anticipate cautious optimism, viewing the current uptick more as a realignment than the onset of a continuous bull market, with significant factors still on the horizon.
Regarding prediction markets, traders are estimating a 77% chance that Bitcoin’s next major movement will be upward to $100,000 instead of a drop to $69,000.
Mr. Lim echoed the cautious outlook, indicating that the critical catalyst for upward movement may require time to manifest. Two main factors could hinder this momentum: over $3 billion in idle stablecoin capital and the imminent risk of a correction in equities, which are “perfectly priced” and might pressure crypto markets.
Still, the renewed interest from large holders after a phase of accumulation hints at shifting market dynamics. “Long-term Bitcoin holders are becoming net buyers after several months,” Lim noted, suggesting that price fundamentals are improving even within the established trading range.
