Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Could Reach 42% by 2032
Fidelity, the asset management firm, suggests that by 2032, a significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply—around 42% or roughly 8.3 million BTC—might become illiquid. This insight comes from a report published by Fidelity, where they identified two groups contributing to this illiquid supply. Essentially, to qualify as illiquid, a Bitcoin supply must have been held for at least 90% of the time over the last four years.
From this analysis, two distinct cohorts emerged. The first involves public companies that are long-term Bitcoin holders, each possessing at least 1,000 BTC, a number that’s been on the rise this year.
The shortage of Bitcoin in the open market—reflected in this illiquid supply—could potentially drive prices up. Fidelity estimates that by the end of 2025, there could be over 6 million Bitcoins categorized as illiquid, representing more than 28% of the total 21 million Bitcoins that exist, according to their findings.
Interestingly, long-term holders, defined as individuals or entities that haven’t transferred their Bitcoin for a minimum of seven years, haven’t seen a decrease in supply since 2016.
The second group includes public companies with at least 1,000 BTC. This group typically maintains strong holdings, showing a decline in their currently available supply only once—in the second quarter of 2022. Presently, public companies are holding over 969,000 BTC, which accounts for 4.61% of the entire Bitcoin supply, based on data from Bitbo.
Potential Future Trends
Fidelity’s projections suggest that by the second quarter of 2032, around 8.3 million BTC could become unavailable in circulation. This estimate factors in wallets that have retained their Bitcoins for over seven years, assuming they will continue to grow at similar rates to the previous decade. However, they did not take into account any potential supply shortages created by newly emerging public companies.
As of the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin’s circulating supply was approximately 19.8 million.
Market Behavior Considerations
The report also points out that these two groups collectively hold Bitcoin worth around $628 billion, with an average price that is double what it was last year. This raises concerns about the market impact if a whale were to start selling significant amounts of BTC.
Recently, a hefty sell-off reported by Bitcoin Zilla has resulted in nearly $12.7 billion in BTC sales over the past month, marking the largest such movement since mid-2022. During this period, Bitcoin prices have dropped by about 2%.
