In a surprising turn, Republican Bruce Blakeman is narrowing the gap in New York’s governor race, trailing Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul by just four points in a recent poll.
The poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates for Blakeman’s campaign, shows Hochul leading with 49.6% against Blakeman’s 45.7% among likely voters.
Notably, 4.7% of those surveyed remain undecided, based on interviews with 800 likely voters conducted from August 27 to August 31.
This close outcome seems to reflect a rising dissatisfaction with Hochul’s leadership as she seeks a second term.
According to the poll, 55% of voters view the governor unfavorably. Pollster John McLaughlin noted that 56% believe it’s time for a new leader, while only 38% think Hochul deserves re-election based on her performance.
“These results indicate that New York voters are unhappy with the current direction of the state. Hochul has missed key benchmarks that typically favor incumbents, creating an opening for Blakeman to potentially win in November,” he added.
However, Blakeman has challenges to face. With the election on November 3 looming just around the corner, he has significant name recognition issues.
About 30% of likely voters claim they either haven’t heard of him or don’t have a clear opinion.
In another recent Siena College poll, Hochul was leading by a more comfortable margin of 10 points, 49% to 39%, among likely voters, with the rest undecided.
Hochul’s advantage is even more pronounced in New York City, where she holds a commanding 60% to 33% lead over Blakeman, leaving 7% undecided, according to the McLaughlin poll.
In contrast, Blakeman leads Hochul by 5 points (51% to 46%) in upstate New York and by 10 points (53% to 43%) in the suburbs.
To close the gap, Blakeman would likely need strong turnout in those suburban and upstate areas, as well as making inroads into Hochul’s lead in the city.
Interestingly, the polling memo does not mention former President Trump, who has endorsed Blakeman but is predominantly unpopular in New York. Recent Siena polling showed 60% disapproval for Trump’s job performance.
Hochul’s campaign and the state’s Democratic Party are investing heavily in advertisements attempting to connect Blakeman with Trump, but Blakeman’s camp argues that the election is really about Hochul and her record.
Blakeman stated, “The Worst Governor in America is on the ropes, and New Yorkers have had enough. This November, they’re going to fire Kathy Hochul and elect me to make New York affordable again, keep families here, and build a new era where everyone has the opportunity to prosper.”
The challenge for Blakeman and the Republican Party now lies in raising sufficient funds to compete with Hochul and the Democrats, who hold a financial advantage.
Hochul’s campaign, “Friends for Kathy Hochul,” reported having $21 million available for the election, while the state Democratic Party has an additional $22 million.
Meanwhile, Blakeman’s campaign, along with the Nassau County Republican Party and other GOP groups, totals around $11 million, with outside pro-Blakeman Super PACs now getting involved to support him.
Earlier this summer, two other polls from pro-Blakeman groups suggested that the race is close, with the Strong & Safe Super PAC reporting Hochul leading Blakeman by only 4 points (47% to 43%).
A survey by co/efficient for the Coalition to Protect New York Taxpayers found a 6 point lead for Hochul (47% to 41%).
In the previous election cycle, Hochul narrowly defeated Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin by 6 points (53% to 47%), who is now serving as the Trump-appointed US Environmental Protection Agency Administrator.
Finally, McLaughlin emphasized that Hochul’s high disapproval ratings, combined with favorable perceptions of Blakeman, indicate that there may be an opportunity for a significant shift in leadership come November.
“With enough resources, Bruce Blakeman can clearly define himself to voters and potentially defeat Kathy Hochul,” he concluded.
