Gradual and Sudden Change in Blue States

In Ernest Hemingway’s classic novel, The Sun Also Rises, a character explains a financial downfall by saying it happens “gradually and suddenly.” This concept seems to resonate with the current fiscal challenges facing many blue states.

California, often seen as a leading example of fiscal decline, is projected to lose four House seats during the 2030 census due to a decrease in population. Major companies, including Wells Fargo and Quantum, have relocated their headquarters to Florida, and it seems more will follow. Interestingly, one media outlet recently referred to Miami as the “new Silicon Valley.”

Illinois and New York are also among the states witnessing significant out-migration. Billionaire Ken Griffin, the head of Citadel Hedge Fund, plans to move his headquarters from Chicago to Florida in 2022. Both Illinois and New York are expected to lose between two to four seats in the upcoming census as well.

Concerns have been raised about how blue states, like California, could potentially skew costs on a national level. Some voices in the political arena even label California as a “national security risk.”

So, what’s really happening? Many individuals and businesses are feeling the burden of higher taxes, excessive spending, rigid regulations, and strict environmental policies in blue states. As a result, they’re migrating to red states like Florida and Texas, which are perceived to offer more opportunities for capital and enterprise. In contrast, both Florida and Texas are projected to gain four congressional seats by 2030.

No matter how you look at the data—basic economic indicators or even the so-called U-Haul Index—red states tend to rank at the top. Occasionally, some purple states like Arizona and Nevada join them. By comparison, blue states such as California, Illinois, and New York often find themselves at the bottom of the list. Many Americans are choosing to leave behind what they consider a bloated government that meddles in their lives and finances.

Some argue that the warm weather and beaches are what attract people to red states, but that’s a simplistic view. Consider places like Utah, Idaho, and Montana—none are known for warm climates or beaches, yet they consistently rank among the top states for in-migration.

This ongoing trend has been observable for years—California hasn’t gained a congressional seat since 2000, and neither have Illinois or New York since the last century. Over time, the economies in these blue states have contracted, and their populations have dwindled, yet many politicians seem reluctant to confront these realities.

As a consequence, the implications extend beyond just losing electoral votes. There’s a growing awareness of financial problems and diminishing political clout in Washington, D.C.

Mike Campbell may not be versed in electoral politics, but his acknowledgment of a “gradual and sudden” decline in his financial status serves as a cautionary note for blue states—and perhaps for the nation as a whole.