Can the Giants look to their recent past to find their quarterback of the future?
The Giants bypassed JJ McCarthy and instead selected receiver Malik Nabors with the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after doing extensive research on the quarterback who led the University of Michigan to a national championship.
“Malik was our player,” general manager Joe Schon said when asked to choose between the two prospects. “He was the guy we targeted.”
A year later, the Vikings drafted McCarthy with the 10th pick, and could use him as a trade chip if they re-sign surprise Pro Bowler Sam Darnold with a big extension in place of franchise tag Darnold. be.
Will the Giants offer the No. 3 pick in 2025? Should they?
McCarthy once had polarizing scouting reviews within the Giants, but things are about to change. The need for a quarterback is heightened right now, and the top two prospects in the 2025 draft class, Shedule Sanders and Cam Ward, may be out of reach.
The paper asked multiple NFL officials whether the Giants should trade No. 3 for McCarthy, assuming that McCarthy is rated higher than Sanders or Ward and that the Vikings would accept the offer.
Why should the Giants do it?
If Sanders and Ward get the top two picks, the Giants would need to trade multiple picks to the quarterback-needy Titans (No. 1) or Browns (No. 2) to move up. . That sounds like a big risk, considering the early consensus in the scouting world was that neither Sanders nor Ward would be better than the fourth-best quarterback in the 2024 class.
In the 2017 trade with the 49ers, the Bears traded from No. 3 to No. 2 to secure a quarterback (Mitch Trubisky), giving them two third-rounders and a fourth-rounder. lost.
Therefore, the Giants will be getting a better player than McCarthy for less money. Instead of getting the No. 3 pick, they will only get the No. 3 pick. And McCarthy only needs to be paid a whopping $8.3 million over three seasons (instead of a standard four-year rookie contract).
“If he deserved to be ranked higher than this year's quarterback, he would be. And some teams may not have one or the other, or both.” [Sanders and Ward] That’s the level,” said an NFC executive. “Once we get J.J., we'll find a way to keep good players. If you think you have talent at quarterback, I don't mind having him at No. 3, No. 6, No. 9.”
McCarthy also comes in with the benefit of spending his rookie year in head coach Kevin O'Connell's quarterback maker system. Before the injury, there were rumors that McCarthy would earn the starting spot in Week 1 after an impressive preseason debut.
“When JJ got hurt, I thought this might have been the best thing that happened to him,” the executive said. “He was given a redshirt year under Kevin.”
ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. recently said on “Unsportsmanlike” that the Giants should trade No. 3 for McCarthy.
“If you look at what quarterbacks did last year and what they did this year, he's probably the No. 1 guy,” Kiper said.
The value of No. 3 in the 2025 draft could also be less than the value of No. 6 in 2024.
“Not all draft classes are the same,” said one former NFL executive. “Last year's first-round class was particularly strong.”
Why the Giants shouldn't do that
Since the Giants took over McCarthy, he has had two knee surgeries (torn meniscus) and has not thrown a regular season pass.
The unknown injury is a big drawback, but all trades are made pending a physical, so the Giants could bring in McCarthy for a medical evaluation before making a final decision.
“There's no way to really know what's going on with his knee until he's on the field,” said one NFC scout. “I wouldn't do that. If you've only seen really nice pictures on FaceTime and someone says, “The fender is a little bent, but now it's like new,” you buy the car. ?His ability to play with his feet was one of his main tools. ”
If the Giants decide that a healthy McCarthy isn't a good fit at No. 6 in 2024, but is a good fit at No. 3 after a season-ending injury and fewer years at the helm of the team, that optic will change to Manager Schoen's It's going to reek of hopelessness.
“Based on his performance, I like McCarthy more as a prospect than Sanders or Ward,” ESPN NFL Draft Analyst Matt Miller said. How much could he have done this year to learn how to get into position to play next year? ”
The second guess would be: The Giants drafted McCarthy over Neighbors as insurance in case Daniel Jones fails, giving the rookie a taste of action in a lost season, and then converting McCarthy into a No. 1 like Teitairoa McMillan in 2025. He should have been named receiver.
“We won't make a decision until late April,” an NFC executive said. “We will need three months to gather more information and evaluate our top five players other than quarterback before pulling the trigger.”
What would the Vikings think?
For two decades, we've watched the rival Packers develop their quarterback successors with a four-year plan in Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, and the Vikings may want to emulate that blueprint. do not have.
But for a team that just came off a 14-3 season, adding an impact defensive starter would be appealing in preparation for a potential Super Bowl appearance in 2025.
The Vikings could also replenish their draft capital after two first-round trades in 2024 left them with just one first-round pick and two fifth-round picks in 2025.
But is it attractive enough to nearly double McCarthy's salary cap charge? Keeping him as a backup would cost $4.96 million, and trading him would accelerate the dead cap charge of $9.53 million.
“I'm not doing it for them,” the NFC executive said. “It's hard to find a boyfriend. If you think it's McCarthy, I'm going to keep both Darnold and McCarthy for as long as possible.”
Ironically, the Vikings, who have $71.33 million in salary cap space, could re-sign Daniel Jones, who was released by the Giants, as Darnold's backup, according to overthecap.com. -It will probably be a one-year replica of Darnold. Contract worth $10 million in 2024.
“I don't think the Vikings can know right now,” Kiper said. “I'll let everything take its course.”
Other business intrigues
It would be unrealistic to acquire McCarthy for only a second-round pick, as the Dolphins did in 2019 when the Cardinals moved on from Josh Rosen after one season, but NFC scouts are willing to take McCarthy if it becomes an option. would be considered as an “alternative plan”.
But what happens if the Giants get creative? They trade inside the top 10, stockpile other picks, convince the Vikings they're still worth more than they were when they were drafted at No. Could they trade a top-10 pick for McCarthy?
“If No. 3 becomes No. 7, you'll get JJ and probably the other two pieces of the rebuilding puzzle,” the current executive said.
Could the Giants trade McCarthy for the Vikings' first-round pick (projected to be No. 28 pending playoff results), third-round pick, and mid-round pick?
In the transaction value chart created by Jimmie Johnson, 3rd place is valued at 2,200 points, 28th place is rated at 660 points, and 10th place (McCarthy) is valued at 1,300 points. So the calculation works fine, but…
“I don't think Minnesota will trade McCarthy,” Miller said.
