While many in the mainstream media are celebrating after Democratic candidate Kamala Harris overtook former President Donald Trump for the lead in recent polls, new election projections spell doom for the Democratic Party.
Pollster Nate Silver's prediction surprised many when it was released on Thursday.
“Despite an increase in her approval rating in the national polling average, our projections suggest Kamala Harris had one of her worst days in a while on Thursday,” Silver wrote.
Projections give Trump a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris only has a 47.3% chance of winning the presidency. The statistics do not add up to 100% because of the small chance of an Electoral College win.
silver explanation The model projections took into account the surge following the Democratic National Convention, which likely contributed to the decline in Harris' projections.
“In other words, we are assuming that Harris's approval ratings are somewhat overestimated at this point, just as we assumed that Trump's approval ratings were overestimated after the Republican National Convention,” he explained.
But even if Harris' support becomes even in the coming weeks, Silver said her campaign faces an uphill battle in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, where recent polls have shown her with only a slight or no lead over Trump, which he said could be a turning point in the election.
“The model puts a lot of weight on recent data, taking into account any changes in the race, and I can see why the model thinks this is a problem for her,” Silver explained. “The fact that she's currently tied in Pennsylvania, at what should be the time when she's at her highest, means she'll be slightly behind in November.”
Many on the left have criticized Silver's model for not showing enough support for Democrats. Blaze TV Media critic John Silver gave a history lesson to explain why Silver might be reluctant to comply.
After the 2016 election, Nate Silver was one of the few mainstream political pundits to admit he was wrong and correct his model. Disney-owned ABC bought his company, FiveThirtyEight, and fired him just before this year's election. That's probably not a mistake, since he doesn't want to be seen as a propaganda tool.
There are only 68 days left until Election Day.
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