The 2024 AFL Grand Final (Australia's version of the Super Bowl) will take place on Saturday (12:30am ET) at the historic Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) between the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions.
The Swans, who have spent most of the season in first place, are just -136 favorites to win against the Lions, who finished fifth on the ladder after a fairly slow start.
Sydney lost to Geelong in the 2022 Grand Final and Brisbane fell short to Collingwood in the Classic this time last year, and both teams have plenty of experience playing in big moments.
Here's a breakdown of the matchups, including predictions and picks.
Sydney vs Brisbane odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| sydney | -3.5 (-110) | -129 | o172.5 (-110) |
| brisbane | +3.5 (-110) | +105 | u172.5 (-110) |
Sydney vs Brisbane predictions
AFL may be unfamiliar to most American sports fans and players, but the conundrum at play here is a classic handicap conundrum.
The Swans were the best team in the competition from start to finish, but now they were up against a fierce Lions team who lived up to their billing as a classic 'hot at the right time' mob.
The key to success for Sydney will be letting their formidable midfield trio of Isaac Heaney, Tom Papley and Chad Warner set the tone.
Once they have the ball, these three can completely overwhelm their opponents. They were sensational in both games of the 2024 Finals series in Sydney, particularly against the Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Giants earlier in the month.
The good news for the Lions is that their midfield is just as solid, with plenty of game-changers. Raki Neal is a strong ball mover in the middle of the park and should help prevent the Swans' trio from running wild.
With their midfield stretched thin, they can turn to their front lines to find an edge in this contest.
Brisbane's tall forwards Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher can be intimidating when they come on, and both have proven to be big-time players over the past few seasons. Daniher played a big role in Brisbane's historic comeback against GWS two weeks ago.
Sydney's defense has been solid all season, but it will be a different game against Hipwood, Daniher and small forwards Charlie Cameron and Cam Reiner.
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Sydney vs Brisbane picks
Both of these teams have plenty of weapons and, nitpicking, Brisbane are one of the few teams in the AFL that can go toe-to-toe with Sydney's difference-makers across the pitch.
In games that are considered a toss-up, I win the loser.
Bet: Brisbane +112
