British Open 2024: Odds, value picks, insight for Royal Troon

The British Open, perhaps the most unpredictable of the majors, is less than 24 hours away from starting and is also the final major of the season after the PGA Championship was moved from August to May in 2019.

So this will be the last time PGA Tour and LIV Golf players compete side-by-side until Augusta National, unless an agreement between the two sides is reached before then. That could happen, but there’s still a lot to be worked out by all involved. But at a press conference before the British Open on Tuesday, Tiger Woods said progress continues to be made between the tour and LIV Golf’s beneficiary, the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF).

Still, this year’s Royal Troon Open will once again have a strong field. Hopefully, it will lead to some drama for golf fans. It will be very different from last year, when Brian Harman dominated the field and won by six strokes. But nobody expected Harman to do what he did last year. And nobody expected Henrik Stenson to dominate Royal Troon in 2016, beating Phil Mickelson by three strokes with a score of 20 under par in one of the greatest duels of all time. And I don’t think anyone expected Todd Hamilton to beat Ernie Els in a playoff at Troon in 2004.

British Open odds:

Latest Odds For the players who will win the British Open in 2024, DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +450

Rory McIlroy +850

Xander Schauffele +1100

Ludvig Oberg +1600

Collin Morikawa +1600

Bryson DeChambeau +1800

Tommy Fleetwood +2200

Jon Rahm +2500

Tyrrell Hatton +2800

Viktor Hovland +3000

Brooks Koepka +3000

Shane Lowry +4000

Robert McIntyre +4000

Patrick Cantlay +4000

Tony Finau +4500

Tom Kim +4500

Hideki Matsuyama +4500

Cameron Smith +4500

Joaquin Niemann +5500

Wyndham Clark +6000

Sahith Teegala +6000

Matt Fitzpatrick +6000

Louis Oosthuizen +6000

Jordan Spieth +6000

Corey Connors +6000

Cameron Young +600

Lim Sungjae +6500

Brian Harman +6500

Adam Scott +6500

Aaron Lai +6500

Justin Thomas +7000

Min Woo Lee +7500

Alex Noren +9000

Akshay Bhatia +9000

Kim Si Woo +10000

Sepp Straka +10000

Jason Day +10000

Davis Thompson +10000

Sam Burns +11000

Russell Henry +11000

Max Homa +11000

Photo by Oisin Keneally/R&A via Getty Images

Selection, Prediction, Insight

Jordan Spieth avoids Viktor Hovland

Jordan Spieth has a strong record at the championship, winning the Claret Jug in 2017 and finishing in the top 30 in his last eight starts. But Spieth has struggled this year, not finishing in the top 10 since the Valero Texas Open, due in part to poor iron performance. He missed the cut at the Masters and missed out on wins at Valhalla and Pinehurst. The Texan also failed to make the weekend at the Genesis Scottish Open, proving his game is in trouble.

Similarly, Viktor Hovlan looks nothing like the player who will win the FedExCup in 2023. His short game has completely declined and his approach play has also deteriorated significantly.

After finishing sole third at the PGA Championship, Hovland seemed to be on a roll, opening the Memorial Tournament with a 2-under-20 69, but a poor weekend saw him drop to a tie for 15th place. The Norwegian then missed the cut at the U.S. Open and most recently tied for 46th at the Scottish Open.

Avoiding Spieth and Hovland is the play of the week.

Photo: Steve Welsh/Getty Images

Top 10 3 things we love

This week is Lim Sung-jae’s week as he plays in his first major tournament of the season. Lim has had a great season, with six top 10 finishes, five of which have come since April. But somehow, he’s missed the cut in all three majors.

Since shooting 77-74 at Augusta, Im has finished T-12, T-4, MC, T-9, T-8, MC, T-3, T-12 and most recently tied for fourth at the Scottish Open. But Im has extra motivation to perform well this week and we think he can finish in the top 10 at +550.

We are also hoping to see two LIV Golf players, both of whom have won the Claret Jug, finish in the top ten.

Cameron Smith, who has one of the best short games in the world, is back in contention for The Open this week, as is Louis Oosthuizen, who has yet to play in a major this season. After two DP World Tour wins last December, Oosthuizen’s LIV status has dramatically changed his Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and made him ineligible to play in other majors, which should put him in good position to play this week.

Smith is priced in the top 10 at +400, while Oosthuizen is at +550.

Two major champions in the top five

Jon Rahm has had a ferocious comeback this week, finishing in the top five at +500.

One of the big stories going into the 2024 season is Rahm’s struggles in major championships, perhaps because of his decision to join LIV Golf in December. He had a poor performance in his Masters title defense and missed the cut at Valhalla. Then, a foot infection forced him to withdraw from the U.S. Open, and Rahm had to watch the tournament from his bed at home. Fortunately, Rahm’s injury has healed and he is expected to play this week.

Reports are that his form at Troon is solid and he seems confident. Rahm even said he is on track to replicate the form that saw him win the Masters in 2023. He has also performed well at the British Open, with two top five finishes in his last three starts, and we expect that to continue this week. Maybe he will follow in the footsteps of his hero, Seve Ballesteros, who won the tournament three times, and lift the Claret Jug.

Photo by Oisin Keneally/R&A via Getty Images

Another major champion who we believe can finish in the top five is Xander Schauffele, who had a great season in 2024.

Schauffele won his first major title at Valhalla by one stroke over Bryson DeChambeau. Since then, he has recorded four consecutive top-15 finishes, including a tie for seventh on the second hole at Pinehurst, where he had just one round over par that week. The former San Diego State Aztec should again compete for a major championship with his strong iron play and slick short game, and there is no flaw in his game. He always seems to be atop the leaderboards; he tied for 15th at Royal Liverpool last year and his best British Open finish was a tie for second at Karnousti in 2018.

I expect Schauffele to finish in the top five at +260.

Contenders (including longshots)

There are four favorites to win the British Open this week.

First up, I feel Tyrrell Hatton at +2800 is primed to break out and win a major. Hatton is trending in a good direction and his game suits Royal Troon well. The three-time Ryder Cup player has long been one of the game’s top ball-strikers, but his short game is also underrated.

Photo: Pedro Salado/Getty Images

Another player with a similar pedigree is former British Open champion Collin Morikawa. At +1600 odds, Morikawa comes to Royal Troon as one of the favorites to win and will surely be on the leaderboard on Sunday. But the question for Morikawa is whether he can close out the final round, which has been a struggle for him in the 2024 season.

Tommy Fleetwood is also a +2200 favorite to win this week. The Englishman hasn’t missed the cut since shooting 80 at Bay Hill, but he hasn’t played in a major since the Masters. But his last four results at the British Open have been second on his own, a tie for 33rd, a tie for fourth and a tie for 10th a year ago. Fleetwood loves links golf and his imaginative short game and wedge play bode well for Royal Troon. This week could be his turn.

And finally, the person we expect to be the big winner is Englishman Aaron Lye, who competed on Sunday night.

Lye is on a roll, with five consecutive top-20 finishes, including a tie for second in Detroit. But this recent run of form is no fluke. PGA TOUR In total strokes gained, Lai is ranked 1st with 72.97% and in regulation percentage, 3rd with 72.47%. On the rare occasions when he misses the green, Lai is also good on the up and down course, ranking 10th on the tour in scrambling percentage. Although he is not a great putter, he still ranks 54th on the tour in strokes gained on the green.

The Open Championship is won by a player who is a good ball-striker and has a solid short game, and Lye fits those criteria perfectly. Why not bet on him at +6500?

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Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation Playing Through. Follow For more golf articles, follow us on Twitter Jack Mirko In the same way.