No game in an NHL series has tougher odds than Boston vs. Toronto in Game 1, and things are looking good so far.
The Bruins won two of the first three games, but the last two were decided by a total of three goals (including an empty netter), with the winner scoring with less than 10 minutes left in the third period.
The betting market is predicting a similar development in Game 4. The Leafs are just -115 home favorites on Saturday night.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs predictions
(8 p.m. ET, TBS)
One of the themes of the first three games of this series has been how well both teams’ defenses are playing.
Both Toronto and Boston are intent on making things difficult in the neutral zone, and that showed in the past two contests, with a limited number of scoring chances at five-on-five.
The Leafs are built to score, so you might think a structured series with fewer events would favor the Bruins, but that’s far from the case.
Both teams have played very well through three games, but Boston has been better in scoring and on special teams.
It’s no surprise that Boston is winning in scoring, but the disparity on special teams is certainly odd.
Boston’s penalty kill was very good in the regular season, but the power play struggled compared to previous years, and even if Toronto struggled on the penalty kill, it wasn’t expected to make a difference.
However, that’s not actually the case, with the Bruins running 50% (5 of 10) on the power play, while the Leafs are running just 9.1% (1 of 11).
One would expect these numbers to regress toward average at some point, but Toronto’s struggles on special teams are nothing new, with Boston’s phenomenal goaltending leading to Toronto’s power play falling dormant. This is a major reason for the condition.
The series was incredibly close at 5-on-5, with the Bruins narrowly winning.
Whether it’s Jeremy Swayman in goal or Linus Ullmark in goal, the B’s have an advantage, and right now they have a big advantage on special teams.
The way back in this series is for Toronto to continue to play a responsibly structured defensive game and try to maintain 5-on-5 as much as possible.
There’s nothing wrong with that, as the Bruins have long been one of the best teams in the league at winning close games.
Would you bet on the NHL?
I expect Game 4 to play out much like the last two tilts between two evenly matched clubs, and I think this game is worth betting on above regulation at +360 odds. Masu.
Bet: 60 Minute Draw (+360, FanDuel)
