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BRYCE HILL: It’s Business As Usual For Politicians In This Blue State. Meanwhile, Residents Flee In Droves

We trust some of the government numbers, but not all of them.

But data is important here. Data doesn’t care about our emotions. Just provide information.

And many people who report on data, like me, only care about facts. For some reason it looks controversial.

Here is an example.

Near the end of each year, the U.S. Census Bureau releases data showing population changes at the state level.The latest data showed the population of Illinois declined From July 2021 to July 2022, the number of residents will reach a record high of 104,437. It uses the 2020 Census as a baseline and combines estimates of births, deaths, and immigration to provide annual state population updates between the decennial census. (Related: Hans von Spakowski: Republicans can thank the razor-thin House majority of the federal government’s failed census)

These annual estimates from the Census Bureau’s Census Projects Program began to be scrutinized in Illinois after the release of the 2020 Census. First, the 2020 Census results were higher than originally projected, but a subsequent population review revealed that Illinois’ population is likely even higher than the official census records. But just because the number of Illinois was higher than expected doesn’t necessarily mean that the Census’ estimate of demographic change was wrong.

More importantly, all three indicators of the state’s population confirm one important point: the state’s demographic trends are among the worst in the nation.

Illinois legislators are reeling as the Census Bureau continues to project a declining state population.U.S. Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthy Said The PES findings “launch serious questions about the credibility of the Census Bureau’s results broadly for Illinois officials,” calling for a change in the Census’ methodology.

Normally, repeating this kind of government data denial would be called a conspiracy theorist. But that didn’t stop elected officials, including Governor JB Pritzker, from wearing tinfoil hats.

Just last week, the Internal Revenue Service released its own transition report based on official tax return data.their data show Illinois lost 105,109 residents between 2020 and 2021. Although the Pritzker Office immediately denied the Census Bureau’s annual estimates of internal migration, it said that this was “not migration data” and that “the Census report is the basis by which internal migration is determined.” claimed. last month.

The Census Bureau defended the method, write in The press release states, “No single assessment can be considered conclusive on its own, as there is no ‘true number’ of the population.” It means you can learn.

If the dataset is flawed, should it be justified criticism? Absolutely. We rely on good information to make sense of the world and identify solutions to our problems.

But that’s not the same as denying a trend because it’s uncomfortable. Our favorite dataset is not necessarily the one that tells us what we want to say.

Whether you look at the results of the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates, the 2020 Census, or the population review, they all reveal the same truth. Illinois’ population growth is among the worst in the nation.

Instead of issuing cookie-cutter statements that question the Census Bureau’s ability to do its job and call for methodological changes to suit political discourse, elected leaders should synthesize the Census Bureau’s data. It would be better for the Illinoisans to accept it openly. The main conclusions are as follows. Illinois has a larger population than originally thought, which is a good thing, as more federal funds are made available to the state and people are moving to other states in droves.

Independent relocation estimates from the IRS and multiple moving companies also show this trend. More and more people are moving out of Illinois than into Illinois. These movements are the main drivers of demographic change in Illinois, as birth and death rates virtually offset each other.

And it’s shocking to see politicians ignore serious threats to the state’s well-being because the numbers don’t look good. The reason Illinois’ population is declining is because politicians have failed for years to curb public corruption and fix the state’s precarious finances.

Not recognizing this important truth doesn’t help anyone, especially those who are struggling to make ends meet here.

In Illinois, it’s time for a census reality check.

Bryce Hill is Director of Fiscal and Economic Studies at the Chicago-based Illinois Policy Institute.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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