Doc Rivers is set to make his debut as the Bucks’ head coach when Milwaukee visits the Nuggets on Monday night.
Both teams are tied for the second-most wins in the league with 32 wins, but perhaps their helpers aren’t too impressed with their performance in the betting window.
The Nuggets (19-26, -8.78 units) and Bucks (18-28, -11.6 units) rank 26th and 27th in profitability against the spread this season. As a result, I don’t feel like rooting for either team in this match.
However, after opening at a high of 240.5, the total provides some anticipation before the market is bet.
In this preview, I’ll share why I agree with this move and my expectations for the game.
bucks analysis
There are several reasons why the Bucks decided to part ways with Adrian Griffin after just 43 games despite finishing with a 30-13 record, but the short answer is that he lost the locker room. , because he was unable to gain complete trust from star players.
For one thing, the Bucks have struggled to establish the defensive identity that has been a big part of their success in recent years.
It didn’t help that the organization traded away three-time All-Defensive First Team Jrue Holiday, but Bucks players highlighted Brook Lopez’s strengths at the center position. I was confused by Griffin’s strategy of breaking away from drop coverage defense. .
USA TODAY Sports (via Reuters Con)
Former head coach Mike Budenholzer implemented this plan when Lopez needed to evolve his all-around game since he was no longer the focal point of the team’s offense. Lopez fully agreed and reinvigorated his career as a valuable addition to the Bucks’ roster.
But instead of allowing Lopez to step back to protect the paint on a pick-and-roll screen and avoid switching to a smaller, faster player, Griffin became more aggressive and almost hit the ball handler, causing Lopez I wanted to keep them away from the basket. He allowed opponents to slip into spaces vacated and attack.
There are plenty of other instances where Griffin has clashed with Bucks players during a season in which he ranks 20th in defensive efficiency after finishing fourth in 2022-23.
One of Rivers’ first comments about his new team was that opponents “should be more afraid” of playing them. His first task as the Bucks’ new coach will be to rebuild the identity of the defense.
nugget analysis
The Nuggets are still a team that prides itself on defense, but they use their pace of play to control games.
According to TeamRankings, the Nuggets are last in tempo, averaging 100 possessions per game.
Their pace, combined with a defense that ranks 11th in efficiency (111 points per 100 possessions), makes the Nuggets the most profitable team for under bettors (29-17-1, +9.45 units) I can understand why.
In the modern game, you have to protect your perimeter to be a good defensive team. Not only are the Nuggets limiting their opponents to 11.3 3-point field goals per game, they also rank third in opponent 3-point field goals made (31.3 per game).
Therefore, Denver tends to sell out on the perimeter if it means the opponent settles for a two-point field goal.
Additionally, by limiting their possessions in games, the Nuggets are able to take advantage of the efficiency of an offense that ranks 6th in turnovers per game (12.7).
Denver’s ability to handle the ball gives them an advantage over opposing teams, especially in clutch moments of the game. The NBA defines these clutch spots as moments with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime and the score difference is within five points.
In this spot, the Nuggets have the second-most wins in the league at 16-8.
Bucks vs. Nuggets picks
I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some adjustment period between the Bucks and their new coach.
But I think the first thing Rivers wants from his players is defensive intensity. The good news is that Milwaukee is a player-driven team that wants to hold itself accountable.
As a result, this game ended with an under total, so I don’t expect it to be any more competitive defensively.
Would you like to bet on the NBA?
This season, the Nuggets are 2-0 with a total of 240 points or more in their opening games.
Looking at the league as a whole, the under is 56 wins, 43 losses, and 1 draw for those betting a starting total of 240 points or more.
My model predicts the total to be close to 230 points, so BetRivers gives you a good price below 238.5.
Pick: Under 238.5 (-110, BetRivers)
